Tom Hill

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28 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 16 Jul

Tom Hill’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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FT News Briefing · Is China’s economic slowdown here to stay? · 16 Jul 2026 podcast

So the GDP data itself is obviously the headline figure, but China also releases monthly indicators.

These include data on retail sales, data on what's called fixed asset investment, which is a gauge of investment.

And these indicators for several months and in the data we saw this week really do raise real questions over the health of the Chinese economy.

Retail sales are up 1%.

Year on year in June, they declined in May for the first time since 2022.

And the fixed asset investment data has been declining for several months now.

It's now down 5.7% so far this year compared to the same period a year earlier.

So that is signaling a real issue with investment in China.

Well, the fixed asset investment data in China rose at the start of this year and is now falling again.

So it's looking like there is fiscal pressure somewhere on investment in China.

China's property sector has been struggling since 2021 when Evergrande, the world's most indebted developer,

defaulted on its international debts.

But what's different this year and late last year is that the overall investment number as part of this fixed asset investment is declining.

Also, there have been signs since the middle of last year of potential pressure from the central government on curbing excessive investments

investment and curbing this enthusiasm that has characterized China for three decades to pursue these ambitious investment projects to drive growth.

So that's a potential tension in the incentives facing local governments in China that could be related to this decline in the fixed asset investment data that we're seeing.

Was there any good news for China's economy?

So China also reported trade data this week.

That data showed exports soaring again.

Exports were up 27% in June.

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