Tom Michaud

speaker

480 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jun 2026 last heard 3 Jun

Tom Michaud’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 1.

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The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost · “We’ve Seen the End of Times”: Tom Michaud on Market Extremes, IPO Red Flags, and 9/11 · 3 Jun 2026 podcast

Then the war started at the end of February.

And now we have a flatter curve.

We've got higher for longer.

The industry will still do as well.

But I think there's that the net interest margin story has probably played out.

Like we would have probably gotten even more improvement than we're going to get, but it still is in a good place.

So my view is that I don't think from an interest rate management perspective it would hurt the banks.

But I would immediately worry about the bank's clients because higher interest rates would really be a break in the economy.

And really –

What I've said over time is the biggest torpedo in the ocean is credit.

When credit shows up, those are immediate costs that impact the bank's income statement.

And credit has been extraordinarily benign and better than expected than for longer it's been.

We should all know a credit normalization is coming.

because it's just been too exceptional.

But as long as it stays within the realm of historical metrics, everything will be fine.

If interest rates go up so much that we start having a credit concern, whether it's commercial real estate or the underlying health of corporate America or the world, that's when if credit comes back, that will be a headwind for the banking industry and finance in general.

Well, the reality is we did have a little bit of fraud earlier this year in a couple of very public companies, and that got investors very nervous.

But when you look at the macro trends in the industry, we're estimating, we follow more banks than any other firm.

So if you look at our median US provision in our model, it's about 26 basis points to loans.

That's below an industry cycle.

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