Tom Nichols

operational successes do not by themselves translate into strategic success.

I mean, the first two years, the first year and a half of World War II was nothing but a string of Japanese operational successes.

Things don't turn around until Midway.

And we, frankly, you know, let's face it too, at Midway, we caught a huge amount of breaks and some real luck.

to turn that around but you know the japanese in 1945 saying how can this be we you know it was two years of winning um so you really have to be careful with and i i and i've said this both to the steel man arguers look this isn't over hold the usa chance just as to the doomers

of whom I am not one, by the way.

I mean, I'm concerned, but I'm not a doomer, saying, listen, there are some ways this can go right, even under Donald Trump, even with this team in charge.

They could, in fact, find their way to a better outcome.

And, you know, we'd all have to be the first one to say, not a fan of Donald Trump, would never vote for him.

But if he does manage to liberate Iran, send our congratulations.

Right.

And when when some, you know, there were some Japanese.

And what then?

Who knows?

You know, and there were some good maybe, you know, fate.

Fate is a harsh, harsh mistress, David.

You know, there were some guys in the room who went, the Americans are not.

That's a big country you're tangling with.

And the answer they got was, literally, there were people in the Japanese high command saying, once we destroy their fleet in Pearl Harbor, they won't like it, but they'll understand.

This is something I worry about, again, sort of basic strategic analysis, right?