Tomasz Tunguz

speaker

457 appearances 2 recordings 1 series first heard Jun 2025 last heard 5d ago

Tomasz Tunguz’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.

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TBPN · Third Party Evaluators, Fed Hikes Rates, Zuck Pushes Back On AI Slowdown | Jeremy Allaire, Tomasz Tunguz, William Layden, Justin Beroz, Eli Wachs, Sean McCarthy, Tom Mueller · 16 Sep 2026 podcast

I mean, we've benchmarked the AI harnesses are now the fastest growing ones are trading between 100 to 150 times current ARR, which is an enormous multiple, particularly at that level of scale.

Sometimes it's subsidized with lower gross margins.

And the idea there is primarily just let's get the product out as far as possible and then ultimately we'll improve the economics there.

In their favor, I will say we made a prediction at the end of 25 that 2026 would be the first year where employers would pay agents at market level for a person or more.

that happened the first time we noticed that was actually in March or April of this year.

So we have a portfolio company that charges at par and it will likely charge at a premium to a person.

And so if that's the case, and it's not necessarily human replacement, it is more augmentation, it is the ability to do more, process more.

But if that's the case, and you could argue economically, there's no management, there's no healthcare,

And so you should actually pay a premium to a human.

Oh, absolutely.

I think the multiples for some of these companies are really quite small.

The key metric there is just net dollar retention and gross dollar retention.

So some of the legacy, we'll call them legacy software companies for a second.

Their revenue retention rates are still phenomenal.

And so there's a multiple arbitrage opportunity.

There are a handful of companies that have been or investment firms that have been doing this for a long time.

And I'm surprised we haven't seen them be more active.

And then you also have holding companies that have bought a lot of these businesses.

Like Danaher would be a publicly traded example of a kind of a holding company.

Constellation Software would be an example of another one.

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