Tony Barry

Well, it's obviously a missed test to see how One Nation's performing in real time as opposed to polling, which is, you know, not a predictive tool, but it gives you a sense of a barometer of what the public are thinking at any given time.

But we saw in Nepean, the Victorian by-election just last weekend, that One Nation really overperformed in a seat...

they really should not have performed that well in.

So I would expect we're going to see similar sort of pattern in Faro where you would expect them to perform quite well.

Yeah, it's hard to see the... You know, when our national polling is showing us that the Coalition are around 22% primary vote and One Nation are at 27% nationally, obviously Farah is a unique seat.

The urban centre of Albury makes up a huge part of the voting base, but it's a seat where you would expect One Nation to be performing well.

And I think some of the factors like...

the fuel crisis, that's got to be particularly sensitive there.

It's a bit of a perfect storm for One Nation to perform well.

Yeah, we've asked on a national sample for the Australian Financial Review recently reasons why One Nation voters were voting One Nation.

And we asked them to do top of mind where they put it in themselves rather than us give them a laundry list of ideas why I think.

And what that showed was 21% of those voting One Nation were doing so as a protest against major parties.

They were sick of the two-party system.

And you hear Cory Bernardi in South Australia, who's the One Nation leader there, he used the uniparty system ad nauseum, those words ad nauseum in the South Australian campaign.

So that is one in five One Nation voters are voting that way for that reason.

15% said it was immigration.

And I think this is important because some people kind of

They'll just say, oh, well, it's over immigration.

Well, that sort of simplifies the One Nation voter profile and it's not that simple.

But it's certainly for 15% of One Nation voters that is a very important issue for why they're voting One Nation.