Trevor

Your thoughts on just the accuracy of polls generally and then what you heard here in terms of the betting markets. How do you look at these two things that are taking up a lot of space right now?

So, for example... Yeah, I have some numbers here, too, if you want to hear them. $653 million in political bets are currently being placed across the top 10 betting markets. And all of the markets on PolyMarket, which includes things outside of politics, are $320 million. So they are the big fish in this, I think.

So, for example... Yeah, I have some numbers here, too, if you want to hear them. $653 million in political bets are currently being placed across the top 10 betting markets. And all of the markets on PolyMarket, which includes things outside of politics, are $320 million. So they are the big fish in this, I think.

They're the leader, but it's still a very thin amount of money, to your point, Sachs.

They're the leader, but it's still a very thin amount of money, to your point, Sachs.

Chamath, where do you put the third category here, which would be the oddsmakers in Vegas? Because they're looking at everything. What do you think about the oddsmakers in Vegas? Would you give them any credence?

Chamath, where do you put the third category here, which would be the oddsmakers in Vegas? Because they're looking at everything. What do you think about the oddsmakers in Vegas? Would you give them any credence?

Well, I mean, because people are looking at the tea leaves. There are reasons it matters. These markets do have an impact on the voting public because... The media covers them. Donors cover them. Voter turnout is impacted by the polls. And then there's these like... you know, various psychological phenomenon like the underdog impacts or bandwagon.

Well, I mean, because people are looking at the tea leaves. There are reasons it matters. These markets do have an impact on the voting public because... The media covers them. Donors cover them. Voter turnout is impacted by the polls. And then there's these like... you know, various psychological phenomenon like the underdog impacts or bandwagon.

So you could have, if people perceive at one point Trump is the underdog, maybe more people turn out and then people who, you know, if Trump was winning versus Biden so much, they might become complacent and you get some sort of surprise there. So they do have actual impact on the voting public.

So you could have, if people perceive at one point Trump is the underdog, maybe more people turn out and then people who, you know, if Trump was winning versus Biden so much, they might become complacent and you get some sort of surprise there. So they do have actual impact on the voting public.

Yeah, I want to talk about that policy. Sacks, I wanted to get your take on this Trump's VP pick JD Vance is now the least popular VP pick in modern history. People said the same thing also about walls. And that was a Terrible pick. Here's your chart on JD. And here's the historical chart. John Edwards. Man, I remember him. He was plus two in net rating. Tim Waltz, plus five.

Yeah, I want to talk about that policy. Sacks, I wanted to get your take on this Trump's VP pick JD Vance is now the least popular VP pick in modern history. People said the same thing also about walls. And that was a Terrible pick. Here's your chart on JD. And here's the historical chart. John Edwards. Man, I remember him. He was plus two in net rating. Tim Waltz, plus five.

Mike Pence, plus five. Kamala, when she was VP, plus three. But JD Vance is absolutely, he's below Sarah Palin, which I guess takes Everett. What's your take on the VP picks and the impact they're having here? Because it's a major topic of discussion.

Mike Pence, plus five. Kamala, when she was VP, plus three. But JD Vance is absolutely, he's below Sarah Palin, which I guess takes Everett. What's your take on the VP picks and the impact they're having here? Because it's a major topic of discussion.

I love the J.D. pick, you know, venture capitals, business guy, well-written, well-spoken.

I love the J.D. pick, you know, venture capitals, business guy, well-written, well-spoken.

To unpack what you're saying here, there was a report. Tim Walz has no financial holdings. He has no stocks, no bonds, no mutual funds, no real estate, nothing, no cryptocurrency. This is what you're referring to, Yachima.

To unpack what you're saying here, there was a report. Tim Walz has no financial holdings. He has no stocks, no bonds, no mutual funds, no real estate, nothing, no cryptocurrency. This is what you're referring to, Yachima.

The level of like literally owning nothing. And I guess, Freeberg, to your, I'll let you take it from there.