Trevor

I think, as we all know, he's got a really great interactive chart over there. He's got Harris with clear leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Virginia. I think those were about 68 electoral college votes. Trump with clear leads in Georgia and Florida. My Lord, Florida is 29 or 30 electoral college votes. That's a lot.

The toss-up states, Nevada with the tipping and no tax there, but that's only six. North Carolina. has been flip-flopping back and forth from Harris to Trump. Those two are worth 24. So we swung from many pats to victory, basically a certain victory for Trump with versus Biden to now a toss-up. This is an interesting chart here, Sachs. I want to get your

The toss-up states, Nevada with the tipping and no tax there, but that's only six. North Carolina. has been flip-flopping back and forth from Harris to Trump. Those two are worth 24. So we swung from many pats to victory, basically a certain victory for Trump with versus Biden to now a toss-up. This is an interesting chart here, Sachs. I want to get your

take on which is the polling averages, I think you said last week or the week before that we would see the Harris bump reverse. And that's exactly what's happened. The month over month change is dramatic, as you see in this table. But the week over week change, so in the month change, you have Democrats running the table in all the swing states.

take on which is the polling averages, I think you said last week or the week before that we would see the Harris bump reverse. And that's exactly what's happened. The month over month change is dramatic, as you see in this table. But the week over week change, so in the month change, you have Democrats running the table in all the swing states.

And then you look at the weekly change, the opposite. In the last week, the Republicans have not caught up, but made significant gains all between a half A percentage point and a point, with the exception of North Carolina, which, as I stated earlier, is a toss-up. Your thoughts on the election right now, Sachs, before we get into the issues, just on the numbers here.

And then you look at the weekly change, the opposite. In the last week, the Republicans have not caught up, but made significant gains all between a half A percentage point and a point, with the exception of North Carolina, which, as I stated earlier, is a toss-up. Your thoughts on the election right now, Sachs, before we get into the issues, just on the numbers here.

What do you think, Chamath? Do you trust these betting markets? Because there's so much at stake at this election, right? I mean, people are pouring money into both campaigns. It's really contentious. People see it as existential on both sides. And then you have these prediction markets that have low tens of millions or hundreds of millions of dollars being bet.

What do you think, Chamath? Do you trust these betting markets? Because there's so much at stake at this election, right? I mean, people are pouring money into both campaigns. It's really contentious. People see it as existential on both sides. And then you have these prediction markets that have low tens of millions or hundreds of millions of dollars being bet.

Could these not be, you know, influenced? Do you trust them? Because we are seeing this is the first time these prediction markets have become a major discussion point because they're businesses, obviously. But people are really getting into them.

Could these not be, you know, influenced? Do you trust them? Because we are seeing this is the first time these prediction markets have become a major discussion point because they're businesses, obviously. But people are really getting into them.

And I wonder if they could be manipulated, or if you think you trust them, I guess is the way I'm asking you, because we've had this discussion a bit offline.

And I wonder if they could be manipulated, or if you think you trust them, I guess is the way I'm asking you, because we've had this discussion a bit offline.

Wasn't the betting market, we talked about this two weeks ago, Shapiro was like 80% or something. So yeah, it's fairly obvious, Freiburg, that may be... these betting markets are a little bit entertainment, but maybe directionally correct, because they also did start to predict the hot swap. So what do you think, Freeberg, about these betting markets, prediction markets?

Wasn't the betting market, we talked about this two weeks ago, Shapiro was like 80% or something. So yeah, it's fairly obvious, Freiburg, that may be... these betting markets are a little bit entertainment, but maybe directionally correct, because they also did start to predict the hot swap. So what do you think, Freeberg, about these betting markets, prediction markets?

And Freeberg, people have a lot of emotion in these models when it comes to politics, whereas if you were looking at gambling or the odds of winning a poker hand, we all would be like, oh, you have a 30% chance of winning, or a 10% or an 8%, you're going to hit two adders. There's emotions both ways, J. Cal.

And Freeberg, people have a lot of emotion in these models when it comes to politics, whereas if you were looking at gambling or the odds of winning a poker hand, we all would be like, oh, you have a 30% chance of winning, or a 10% or an 8%, you're going to hit two adders. There's emotions both ways, J. Cal.

And Zach, if people were to lose a poker hand that they were 60% to win or two thirds to win, you know, they would be like, okay, that makes total sense. When Hillary Clinton lost to Trump the first time, people lost their minds. And he was pretty clear, right? He was, I think, 65, 35. And people are like, wait, you said it's 65%. Yeah.

And Zach, if people were to lose a poker hand that they were 60% to win or two thirds to win, you know, they would be like, okay, that makes total sense. When Hillary Clinton lost to Trump the first time, people lost their minds. And he was pretty clear, right? He was, I think, 65, 35. And people are like, wait, you said it's 65%. Yeah.

Your thoughts on just the accuracy of polls generally and then what you heard here in terms of the betting markets. How do you look at these two things that are taking up a lot of space right now?