Trey Ward

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263 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jan 2026 last heard 13 Jan

Trey Ward’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jan 2026 with 1.

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How I Invest with David Weisburd · E281:The Tsunami of Pain Facing Venture Capital · 13 Jan 2026 podcast

So the third piece of data would be graduation rates from Series A to Series B, right?

The percentage of companies that raised the Series A that then two years later raised the Series B. And so if you look at the 2020 cohort, so look at a company that raised in Q1 2020.

You go out two years.

42.6% of them raised the Series B. That's an amazing number, right?

And it makes sense though.

2020 fundraising was all right.

Then it shoots up.

You would expect graduation rates to go up, right?

But then think about the companies that raised the Series A in 22 or 23.

If you start to look at those cohorts, the two-year graduation rate to Series B is sub 15%.

Sub 15%.

Said differently, six out of seven companies that try to raise a Series B can't, right?

And it's the same problem.

Where are they going to go?

Well, a lot of them are going to go bankrupt.

And so the tsunami that I see coming is kind of the hangover effect.

It's the catch up from the big venture funding downturn that we saw post 2022.

It inherently is going to catch up with the companies that were founded before then.

Yeah, the strategy is incredibly simple, right?

If you look at graduations rates going from 42% to 15%, right?

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