Warren Hogan
speaker
104 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 29 Jul
Warren Hogan’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
We had core inflation of 0.9 and 1% for the two quarters, which is over 4% annual.
And I think really what it shows you is that the margin pressure and the persistence of cost pressure is
it sort of it was unleashed as soon as there was some sort of life in in in the private economy as soon as the consumer started to show a bit of mojo and businesses of spending again late last year then prices had to be passed through because margins have been under pressure the the irony of this is that the cost pressures for business have not eased at all they're intensifying if anything but the degree of pass-through has moderated
And therefore, the margin pressure on business is quite severe in the first half of the year is my conclusion.
And it's worrying because at some stage that margin pressure stops being market level or normal competitive profits down to no profits, to losing money, to shutting businesses.
And there's obviously all the iterations in between.
Where we're at right now, I don't know.
But one thing we do know for sure is that if we see a revival of demand in the economy, which no one's talking about, but if we did, then we would see that pass through again, like we did over the second half of 2025, because the cost pressures have been very strong in the first half of the year.
And we know that's happening as well.
Look, it is quite hard to be too specific about it.
I think there's no doubt that everything's gone into the mix.
So the rate hikes...
I mean, most economists were talking about rate cuts at Christmas and over the summer holidays.
And so the shift to those rate hikes in three in a row was pretty sudden, and I think that had an impact.
There's no doubt that the uncertainty associated with a major geopolitical event like the world's greatest military power invading one of the world's oldest civilizations is going to unnerve people and get them sort of being cautious about things.
And then, of course...
They become additive because you start to see the housing market turnover.
You start to see, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria, house prices fall at an even more intensive rate.
It all adds up.
I think the budget probably played a role too, particularly in relation to housing and the fear that came out of the economy.
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