Wesley Stevenson
speaker
1,470 appearances
54 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2010
last heard May 2015
Wesley Stevenson’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
So there's still work to be done.
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Well, Matae and Gunyi got the result right, and the pollsters got it wrong.
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Most polling companies had the two main candidates neck and neck, or very close, and they were predicting that the election would probably go to a second round.
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The pollsters have been very quiet on this so far, but Ken Apalo is a Kenyan political blogger and a PhD candidate at Stanford University in the United States.
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He thinks the pollsters made a big mistake in assuming that turnout would be the same in the strongholds of both candidates.
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So registered voters likely to vote for Uhuru Kenyatta turned out in greater numbers than those registered who were more likely to vote for Ryla Odinga.
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No, because he said Kenyatta's victory would come from everyone voting along ethnic lines, which is something the pollsters had rejected.
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And although the core ethnic vote of the two main candidates did vote as Ngunyi had predicted, they also got votes from outside their core ethnic groups too.
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And so Mattia Ngunyi was wrong to say that everyone would vote along ethnic lines.
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And Ryla Odinga was able to attract voters from other ethnic groups, as the pollsters had predicted.
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But this wasn't enough to offset the problem he had with turnout amongst his core vote.
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Yes, according to the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV-AIDS, or UNAIDS as it's known, in 2011 there were 34 million people living with HIV, and 2.5 million new cases in that year.
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That's 20% fewer new infections than was the case 10 years earlier.
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But this might not be the entire story.
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New methods of estimating these figures are being introduced all the time in order to improve the accuracy of these figures, and sometimes this can have a dramatic effect.
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For example, in 2007, UNAIDS reduced their estimates of the numbers of people living with HIV worldwide by 6 million.
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Why?
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I asked Ron Brookmeyer, professor of biostatistics at the University of California in the US.
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So where are we now?
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Well, Professor Brookmeyer says there's still uncertainty in the figures.
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Showing 521–540 of 1,470 · page 27 of 74
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