Yan Wang
speaker
275 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2024
last heard Sep 2024
Yan Wang’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
I I don't I doubt they can achieve five percent this year.
Um so if you look at their Q two GDP growth rate uh was around four point seven four point eight.
But if you look at uh quarter over quarter, GDP growth was already, I think analyzed rate was two point eight percent in Q two from from the previous quarter.
So that's way below their five percent target, right?
And and I think especially if you look at leading indicators, they are still slowing.
Right.
So if you look at PMIs, they have been around 50 per 50, kind of, you know, um slightly above, slightly below.
Uh and uh I think more worrying is money and credit numbers.
They are they have been slowing quite significantly.
So if you look at M1 Chinese M1, narrow money narrow money supply contract.
And that's the worst reading on record.
So it's it's it's worse than the massive crackdown in in the early 1980s.
Uh you know, it's worse than after the uh Keman Square problem.
So, you know, I I think.
I I probably in the in the report that I just published, there was a chart um showing that Chinese M1 growth has been very tightly correlated with uh nominal GDP growth.
So I think that's a deeply boring chart.
Well it
Uh well I think that the constraining uh of what's const constraining money supply is basically demand for loans has basically disappeared, right?
From both the household sector and the corporate sector.
Um so then that's a reflection of very weak demand, very weak confidence.
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