Yaroslav Trofimov

that would leave Iran in control of the strait.

There is talk in Iran now of passing new legislation that would actually formalize this control and require every passing ship to pay money, lots of money, to the Iranian state.

And that would transform the geopolitical situation in the Gulf.

It would turn all these Gulf countries into, in a way, dependents of Iran because they will not be able to do anything with their own oil and gas without Iranian permission.

And that is a strategic...

Victory for Iran, if that happens, and it would be a massive defeat for the United States.

A lot of the options are really good.

It's a mountainous area.

You now have drones.

You now have portable missiles.

So any military operation to reopen it will likely cause significant casualties.

And use that as leverage in negotiations with the Iranian regime to say, OK, well, you know, if you want to export your oil, let's open up the strait and then, you know, you can have your oil terminal back.

Back in the 1980s, the U.S.

and other nations were escorting tanker ships through the strait out of the Persian Gulf.

That's a little bit more difficult, much more difficult now because technology has changed.

Because now Iranians have access to drones that are really hard to detect, that can fly the entire breadth of this strait and strike ships.

And the Iranians are currently attacking tankers in the vicinity of the strait with drones almost every day.

Correct.

Correct.

So the Iranian response to this was, well, it was an empty threat and we called his bluff.