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Don’t blame supermarkets for your expensive** groceries**
Saying greedy shops have caused rising food prices is populist slop（垃圾內容）
Jul 20th 2026|Washington, DC|4 min read
FOR MANY characters in fiction, the central drama of their story concerns their grocery bills. Jean Valjean is imprisoned for stealing a loaf of bread; Mrs Lovett strikes an unholy alliance with Sweeney Todd for access to a source of free meat for her pie business. According to a recent survey of Americans, such drama has come for them too: almost two-thirds cite paying for groceries as a major source of financial stress, twice the share that mention other large or recently volatile expenses, including housing and fuel prices.
At first glance the panic is understandable. Grocery prices in America have climbed by around a quarter since 2020, exceeding nominal wage growth (see chart). Shoppers might even feel some sympathy for Mrs Lovett: ground beef is nearly twice as expensive as it was in 2019, thanks in part to drought-related cattle shortages.
Other countries have also been afflicted by rising grocery bills. Since 2020 food prices in Australia, Britain, Canada and France are up by between a fifth and a third. Discontent is inviting all kinds of intervention. Zohran Mamdani, the mayor of New York City, cruised to victory by promising to do something about the rising cost of living. He plans to bring down food prices by opening a series of government-run supermarkets. In Canada the push for state grocery stores went mainstream when Avi Lewis, a champion of the concept, was elected leader of the country’s leftist New Democratic Party in March.
Others are trying to meddle with prices directly—by suasion or by force. When Walmart, America’s biggest retailer, announced on July 6th that it was lowering prices on staple products including ground beef, President Donald Trump quickly claimed credit, saying it had done so at his behest. On July 1st a new law came into effect in Australia banning large chains from charging prices that the government deems “excessive”.
Yet these interventions—which focus on the very end of the food chain—are looking in the wrong place. In most developed countries there is scant evidence that grocers earn excessive profit margins. Nor have they raised prices for consumers more quickly than the wholesale prices they must pay have increased. Moreover, evidence of concentration—which would give grocers the market power to gouge consumers—is lacking in most developed countries.
First, consider margins. These are often wafer-thin. American supermarkets like Kroger and Albertsons collected just 1% of their sales in operating profits last year. Even Walmart, with its 4% margin, hardly looks like it is milking customers. It is a similar story in Britain and France, with margins only a little fatter in Australia and Canada. The real cream has traditionally been elsewhere in the supply chain, such as with the big food manufacturers. Over the past decade the average operating margin across General Mills, Kraft Heinz, Mondelez and PepsiCo has been 13%.
Second, look at how wholesale prices have changed over the past six years. Grocers are often criticised for raising prices rapidly after the pandemic. But evidence of opportunism is hard to find. Consumer food prices rose no more quickly than producer food prices between 2020 and 2025 in America (and likewise in Australia, Canada and France).
Finally, consider concentration. According to the Herfindahl-Hirschman index, a measure of industry concentration, the grocery market in most countries is competitive at the national level (a little more so in America and Britain, a little less so in Australia and Canada). That does not guarantee adequate competition in practice: what matters is whether there are enough rival outlets within a distance that consumers could reasonably be expected to travel to buy their groceries. Analysis published by America’s Department of Agriculture in 2023 noted that the grocery market is far more concentrated when examined at the county level. Even then, however, it is mostly a concern in rural areas and small towns, where less than 10% of the population lives.
Grocery prices have shot up across the developed world largely because the cost of inputs like fertiliser and fuel have surged, owing first to the war in Ukraine and, more recently, to conflict with Iran. The wages that farmers need to pay to attract enough workers have also risen as governments cut back on immigration. There is little evidence to suggest that supermarkets are the ones to blame. Even the packaged-food giants, which increased prices to protect their profits in the post-pandemic wave of inflation, have seen their margins slump over the past three years as shoppers have switched to retailers’ cheaper own-label brands.
The idea that governments should step in to sell food to their citizens is an old one, with a poor record. Supermarkets in the Soviet Union, which were almost exclusively state-run, are remembered for their long bread lines, not their low bread prices. Subsidised stores might well be able to offer lower prices, and may have a useful role to play in underserved rural areas. But placing them in an already competitive market runs the risk of driving existing grocers out of business. Politicians need to cook up some better ideas. ■
請別把高昂的雜貨賬單怪在超市頭上
宣稱貪婪的店家導致食物價格上漲，根本是民粹主義的廢話
2026年7月20日 | 華盛頓特區 | 4分鐘閱讀
對許多虛構作品中的角色來說，故事的核心衝突往往與他們的雜貨帳單有關。尚萬強（Jean Valjean）因偷了一塊麵包而身陷囹圄；洛薇特夫人（Mrs. Lovett）則為了替她的派餅生意獲取免費肉源，與理髮師陶德（Sweeney Todd）結成了邪惡聯盟。根據最近一項針對美國人的調查，這樣的劇碼也來到了他們的現實生活中：幾乎有三分之二的人將支付雜貨費用列為主要的財務壓力來源，這個比例是提及房屋和燃料價格等其他大型或近期波動劇烈支出的兩倍。
乍看之下，這種恐慌是可以理解的。自 2020 年以來，美國的雜貨價格上漲了約四分之一，超過了名義薪資的成長幅度（見圖表）。購物者甚至可能對洛薇特夫人產生些許同情：由於與乾旱相關的肉牛短缺，牛絞肉的價格幾乎是 2019 年的兩倍。
其他國家也同樣受到雜貨賬單上漲的困擾。自 2020 年以來，澳洲、英國、加拿大和法國的食品價格上漲了五分之一到三分之一之間。這種不滿情緒正在引發各種形式的干預。紐約市長佐蘭·曼達尼（Zohran Mamdani）憑藉承諾解決生活成本上漲問題而順利勝選。他計劃透過開辦一系列政府營運的超市來降低食品價格。在加拿大，推動國營雜貨店的概念進入了主流，該概念的擁護者艾維·路易斯（Avi Lewis）於三月當選該國左翼新民主黨的領袖。
其他人則企圖直接干預價格——無論是透過勸說還是強制手段。當美國最大的零售商沃爾瑪（Walmart）於 7 月 6 日宣布降低包括牛絞肉在內的主食價格時，總統唐納·川普（Donald Trump）迅速將功勞歸於自己，表示沃爾瑪是應他的要求而這麼做的。7 月 1 日，澳洲一項新法律正式生效，禁止大型連鎖店收取政府認定為「過高」的價格。
然而，這些將焦點放在食品供應鏈最末端的干預措施，顯然看錯了地方。在大多數發達國家，幾乎沒有證據表明雜貨商賺取了過高的利潤率。他們向消費者提高價格的速度，也沒有快過他們必須支付的批發價格上漲速度。此外，大多數已開發國家並沒有證據顯示，超市業者因市場過度集中而掌握足以向消費者收取高價的市場支配力。
首先，考慮利潤率。這些利潤率通常薄如蟬翼。像克羅格（Kroger）和艾伯森（Albertsons）這樣的美國超市，去年的營業利潤僅占其銷售額的 1%。即使是擁有 4% 利潤率的沃爾瑪，看起來也很難說是在榨取顧客。英國和法國的情況也類似，澳洲和加拿大的利潤率僅稍微豐厚一點。傳統上，真正的油水存在於供應鏈的其他環節，例如大型食品製造商。在過去十年中，通用磨坊（General Mills）、卡夫亨氏（Kraft Heinz）、億滋國際（Mondelez）和百事公司（PepsiCo）的平均營業利潤率為 13%。
其次，看看過去六年批發價格的變化。雜貨商常因在疫情後迅速調漲價格而受到批評。但很難找到投機取巧的證據。在 2020 年至 2025 年期間，美國的消費者食品價格上漲速度並沒有快於生產者食品價格（澳洲、加拿大和法國也是如此）。
最後，考慮集中度。根據衡量產業集中度的赫芬達爾-赫希曼指數（Herfindahl-Hirschman index），大多數國家的雜貨市場在國家層面上是具備競爭力的（美國和英國競爭稍強一些，澳洲和加拿大則稍弱一些）。這並不能確保在實際操作中有充分的競爭：真正重要的是，在消費者可以合理前往購買雜貨的距離內，是否有足夠的競爭對手門市。美國農業部於 2023 年發布的分析指出，若在縣（county）級層面上進行檢視，雜貨市場的集中度要高得多。然而，即便如此，這主要也只是鄉村地區和小鎮面臨的問題，而居住在這些地方的人口不到總人口的 10%。
食品雜貨價格之所以在已開發國家普遍大幅攀升，主要是因為肥料、燃料等生產投入成本飆漲。這波成本上升，最初受到俄烏戰爭影響，而近期則進一步受到伊朗衝突所帶來的衝擊。此外，各國政府收緊移民政策，使農場更難招募足夠勞工，也迫使農民提高薪資，以吸引人力投入農業生產。
目前幾乎沒有證據顯示，超市才是推升食品價格的罪魁禍首。 即使是疫情後為了維持獲利而調漲售價的包裝食品大廠，近三年來也因愈來愈多消費者轉向零售商價格較低的自有品牌（private label），導致獲利空間明顯受到擠壓。
由政府直接販售食品給民眾，並不是什麼新構想，但歷史經驗並不理想。 前蘇聯幾乎所有超市都由國家經營，人們記住的不是低廉的麵包價格，而是排隊購買麵包的漫長人龍。
當然，接受政府補貼的商店或許確實能提供較低的售價，也可能在商業服務不足的偏鄉地區發揮一定作用。然而，若將這類政府經營或補貼的商店設置於競爭已相當充分的市場，反而可能擠壓現有民間超市的生存空間，甚至導致部分業者退出市場。
比起投入經營超市，政治人物更應提出能真正解決食品價格問題的政策。 ■
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