The fantasy of Trump’s Iran deal
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What recent actions has the US taken in Iran amid a ceasefire?
I'm guest host Waleed Ali and you're listening to 7am. 7am. They're actions that don't exactly scream peace deal. The US launching fresh strikes on Iran this week in the middle of a ceasefire. Days earlier, Donald Trump had said an agreement to end the war was close. Now Iran's threatening to retaliate amid fears things could escalate again. And while Trump insists peace talks are still, quote, proceeding nicely, the president has upped the stakes for negotiators, trying to turn a narrow deal over Iran, Hormuz and sanctions. into something much bigger, a massive regional reset built around Israel, the Abraham Accords.
What does Trump say about the possibility of a peace agreement with Iran?
Today, Middle East correspondent for The Economist, Greg Karlstrom, on the fragile ceasefire, Trump's bigger gamble, and who will blink first in the standoff between America and Iran. It's Thursday, May 28th. Greg, let's start with these recent US strikes inside Iran. What is happening exactly?
Well, the American story here is twofold. It seems like two things happened overnight on Monday into Tuesday. One is that Iran seems to have turned on some of its air defense systems near the city of Bandar Abbas, the main port city in southern Iran. The Americans would have seen that. They would have seen the Iranian air defense radars essentially lighting up, and they might have thought that
How is Iran responding to US strikes and what are the implications?
Iran was attempting to shoot down either American drones or American warplanes, and so they carried out strikes on these air defenses.
U.S. Central Command says that the U.S. military conducted self-defense strikes targeting Iranian missile launch sites as well as boats around the Strait of Hormuz. The attacks come as Washington and Tehran continue negotiating.
They're also saying that small Iranian naval ships were attempting to go out into the Strait of Hormuz and lay mines in the strait. We don't have any confirmation, of course, that either of those things are Accurate. Iran has laid mines in the Strait before, so it's not entirely implausible.
What are the stakes for negotiators in the US-Iran conflict?
But either way, the Americans carried out these strikes. The Iranians are accusing them of a violation of the ceasefire.
Iran's foreign ministry labeled the move a direct violation of the ongoing ceasefire, warning Iran would leave no act of aggression unanswered.
But we saw Iran a few weeks ago carry out missile and drone strikes on the UAE and other countries in the Gulf. They don't want to resume the war in full force, but they think there is still some, I think, utility in carrying out these sorts of attacks. I don't think the truce is about to collapse. It's not the first time that one or the other party has violated the ceasefire, but it's a reminder of how fragile this all is.
I suppose the worst case scenario is that it might mean that the whole idea of negotiation becomes implausible. That certainly on the Iranian side, but perhaps even on both sides, no one really believes that the other side is trying to negotiate or that negotiations are in bad faith. And so they become just kind of strategic distractions while we do the things that we actually want to do. Would those sort of concerns be misguided in a situation like this?
I think both sides went into these negotiations two months ago, assuming that the other one was negotiating in bad faith. I mean, that's certainly the Iranian perspective, right? They feel as if they've tried talking twice before with the Americans in spring of last year and then winter of this year. And both times those talks ended not just in failure, but with Iran being attacked by Israel last summer and then by America and Israel. this year. So they think the Americans are entirely bad faith actors. And then that's also a longstanding view on the American side. For decades now, there's been a reluctance to negotiate with Iran and a feeling that it's pointless to negotiate with Iran.
How fragile is the current ceasefire between the US and Iran?
So they both have their doubts, but at the same time, they both have an economic incentive, if nothing else, to try and negotiate right now. America needs the Strait of Hormuz open to try and bring down global energy prices.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What recent actions has the US taken in Iran amid a ceasefire?
0:01–0:45
2
What does Trump say about the possibility of a peace agreement with Iran?
0:45–1:43
3
How is Iran responding to US strikes and what are the implications?
1:43–2:23
4
What are the stakes for negotiators in the US-Iran conflict?
2:23–4:20
5
How fragile is the current ceasefire between the US and Iran?
4:20–17:15
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