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The a16z Show

Balaji and Steven Glinert on Network States, Supply Chains, and Allied Coalition Strategy

03 Jun 2026

Transcription

Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.

Chapter 1: What are the shifting dynamics between nations and networks?

0.031 - 18.518 Balaji Srinivasan

On the left, there's a lot of people who think you can just push a button to like end homelessness, end poverty, just take all Elon's money. And they just don't do any math and they don't have any understanding of scarce resources, scarce resources in the physical world. They don't understand scarce resources monetarily, right? They just think it was a cornucopia, a bounteous mother.

0

18.919 - 37.398 Balaji Srinivasan

Government is GOV is GOD, government is God, but the bounteous mother form of God, which can just hand out everything right. And the rightists, while more realistic often, is subject to a different but symmetrical, somewhat symmetrical version of this, where they think if the leftist thinks there's infinite money, the rightist thinks there's infinite power.

0

37.859 - 53.249 Balaji Srinivasan

The rightist does not viscerally understand, oh, I need to work for votes. I need to get political support. Just like the leftist doesn't understand scarce resource in the physical world, the rightist doesn't understand scarce resource in the digital world. That they actually need to get all these people to agree with them that this is a good thing.

0

53.289 - 59.721 Balaji Srinivasan

And you can't just point a gun at everybody, right? And there's limits to just brute force.

0

59.802 - 83.481 Unknown

Who has more power today, nations or networks? For decades, the internet has connected people across borders, creating new communities, markets, and institutions that don't neatly fit inside traditional states. At the same time, global power is shifting as China expands its industrial capacity and countries rethink alliances, supply chains, and economic strategy.

83.461 - 103.107 Unknown

The result is a growing debate about what comes next, a world organized primarily by nation states or one increasingly shaped by digital networks that operate across them. Theo Jaffe and Sofia Puccini speak with Balaji Sreenivasan and Stephen Glinnert about geopolitics, technology, and the future of global power.

105.584 - 109.691 Theo Jaffee

We are live in the Situation Room. Today is Thursday, May 28th.

110.231 - 113.857 Balaji Srinivasan

All right, so can I show some slides, or should I get started?

113.877 - 121.65 Steven Glinert

Go ahead. You should probably talk about where this came from and, like, why we're both— like, what the hell you've raised online the last couple days, too, right?

Chapter 2: How does China's industrial rise affect global power structures?

306.515 - 324.469 Balaji Srinivasan

Yep. Okay. Are those logos on the black? Yeah. Well, those are all coins. Oh, cool. Okay. Yes. Coins, not companies, right? So, because they're communities, not companies, right? Does it show the networkstate.com, the book here? Yes, no? Okay, great. All right. So I wrote a book on this.

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324.649 - 333.801 Balaji Srinivasan

I just want to briefly explain what I'm trying to do first and motivate it, and then we can have a discussion perhaps. Okay. So I wrote The Network State. That was theory. And I opened up The Network School, and that's practice.

0

Chapter 3: What role do alliances play in a multipolar world?

334.061 - 351.125 Balaji Srinivasan

Okay? Basically to show that you can essentially print out the internet, that you can actually build physical social networks. I think that's the next step for what we're doing in tech, where we are not simply building data centers with closed doors, but we're building tech communities. Think of it as, you know, look, all these people are leaving Silicon Valley.

0

351.405 - 368.515 Balaji Srinivasan

You know, you have Larry Page and Zuck and Sergey Brin, Elon, of course, Peter Thiel, Travis Kalanick of Uber all left California. Jeff Bezos left Washington. It's no longer the place for capital formation. And unfortunately, talent can't get into the U.S. either. And so basically Silicon Valley, as we know it, is actually over.

0

368.856 - 384.391 Balaji Srinivasan

This year of IPOs, in my view, is like the last giant, you know, bang on the thing. And we need to decentralize Silicon Valley around the world. And in fact, that already exists in a sense where there's a network of these Silicon Valleys There's Silicon Valley of Uzbekistan and Moldova.

0

384.431 - 399.252 Balaji Srinivasan

All these places want a Silicon Valley of X. They've wanted it for many years, but now is actually the time to decentralize Silicon Valley. Just like we have Google offices and data centers around the world, we actually have the tech community all over the world because the tech community draws from the world, right? Okay, so that's it. You're behind network school. We did the first one here.

0

399.593 - 418.912 Balaji Srinivasan

Let me give a little bit more theory. the concept of being internet first, what it means, what it means for our values, what it means for the world. So first, internet first. So can you guys see the screen where it says the internet century? Okay, so the single most important force in the entire world, yet still underestimated, is the rise of the global internet.

419.393 - 435.074 Balaji Srinivasan

It is the first thing you see often when you wake up in the morning and the last thing at night. It is, perhaps it's even monitoring your sleep or doing fitness tracking. Perhaps it's even doing, you know, some sort of agent that's acting for you online, right? So it's completely ubiquitous. And you know, fish can't see water.

435.555 - 451.754 Balaji Srinivasan

As Orwell says, it takes a capital effort, a huge effort to see what's in front of one's nose. The internet's in front of your nose all the time. Arguably, the key moment was 1991. It wasn't just the fall of communism in the Soviet Union. It was also the rise of capitalism on the Internet because something called the NSF acceptable use policy that was repealed.

452.114 - 470.336 Balaji Srinivasan

And that was actually a thing that was blocking capitalism on the Internet. Up to that point, the Internet was an educational and military network only. And all the guys said, hey, if you legalize capitalism on the Internet, you're going to get spam and scams and porn and malware. And of course, they were right. But. We also got all the dot coms and it was net good, right?

470.796 - 487.485 Balaji Srinivasan

So even despite the fact that the internet is the single most important force on the world, it is still underestimated because we put every transaction and communication online, but there's still layers that operate offline, like the currency, the presidency, the military. That's all going to change. We're going to enter what I call an internet first world.

Chapter 4: What is the concept of the Network State and how does it relate to technology?

1238.927 - 1256.571 Balaji Srinivasan

Tragic accident. And he had the body of Superman, but he fell off a horse. He's paralyzed. So if the network isn't coordinating the state, or if there's two networks that are smashing the state against each other, which is what's happening in America, then it can't just, right? Because to just do something means take away all constraints.

0

1257.072 - 1274.6 Balaji Srinivasan

Actually, I'll say one more thing on this, and I'll give you guys a ball. So there's another meme that I critiqued recently, which was, to be clear, I think it comes from a good place, but it's like the just push the button, you know, meme, right? Which is just restore law and order. Why don't, you know, don't ever think about pushing that button. The fix everything button, I think.

0

1274.62 - 1275.682 Balaji Srinivasan

The fix everything button, right.

0

1275.902 - 1276.804 Steven Glinert

The fix everything button.

0

1277.605 - 1298.431 Balaji Srinivasan

Yeah, yeah. Now, the thing about this is... It's a great meme. It's so good. It's a great meme. Right. It's like... The thing about it is, is there some truth to it? There is some truth to it, which is like, if we just had a button we could push that said, hey, enforce the law, restore law and order, you know, like then everything would just work.

1298.771 - 1312.285 Balaji Srinivasan

And, you know, the other people have stupid ideas and so on and so forth. What is missed in that is that the people who have those bad ideas, you have to uninstall those bad ideas via persuasion before the button is built.

1313.868 - 1331.628 Balaji Srinivasan

Like, that is to say, the reason that, like, or another way of putting it is, on the left, there's a lot of people who think you can just push a button to, like, end homelessness, end poverty, just take all of Elon's money. He's so ungrateful. He's ungratitude, blah, blah, blah. Take all the billionaire money. They owe it to us.

1332.168 - 1348.807 Balaji Srinivasan

And they just don't do any math, and they don't have any understanding of scarce resources. Scarce resources in the physical world. They don't understand scarce resources. monetarily, right? They just think it was a cornucopia, a bounteous mother, government is, GOV is GOD, government is God, but the bounteous mother form of God, which can just hand out everything, right?

1349.568 - 1367.128 Balaji Srinivasan

And the rightists, while more realistic often, is subject to a different but symmetrical, somewhat symmetrical version of this, where they think if the leftist thinks there's infinite money, the rightist thinks there's infinite power. The rightist does not viscerally understand, oh, I need to work for votes.

Chapter 5: How is technological sovereignty influencing supply chains?

1367.26 - 1384.834 Balaji Srinivasan

I need to get political support. Just like the leftist doesn't understand scarce resource in the physical world, the rightist doesn't understand scarce resource in the digital world. That they actually need to get all these people to agree with them that this is a good thing. And you can't just point a gun at everybody. right? And there's limits to just brute force.

0

1385.175 - 1399.067 Balaji Srinivasan

I mean, duh, but also not duh, you know? This is why, like, so many magas seem to believe that, like, there's, like, adamantium under the Appalachians. That, like, America as a physical place has, you know, some super resource, right?

0

1399.447 - 1421.234 Balaji Srinivasan

That, like, as if, like, the American empire with, like, a billion people globally and allies around the world isn't mostly held together by diplomacy, treaties, alliances. You're not firing the gun 99.999 whatever percent of the time, however many nines, laws do not involve the firing of a gun. That is a very rare occasion, edge case.

0

1421.935 - 1438.02 Balaji Srinivasan

And while the left can like not understand that force exists and it is the ultimate backstop, that's true. The right doesn't understand that it's not what you use all the time and you don't use it except in extremely, extremely infrequent circumstances. Let me pause there.

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1438.962 - 1465.163 Steven Glinert

I just want to – so I kind of want to come back to something you said. I kind of want to put a fine point on two things. I want to put a fine point on something you said, but I also kind of want to add a little bit. There's this thing about like it's not that the U.S. military is made in China. It's that China's productive capacity – We don't know what supply chain looks like.

1465.785 - 1485.094 Steven Glinert

I mean, I think I've spoken to a lot of people. They said we cleaned up the supply chain quite a bit. Who knows? But it's that China's productive capacity for a lot of what will be future warfare, which is all going to be autonomous, is... unbelievably overpowered. I think they make 93% of the world's... It's like... What?

1485.214 - 1504.262 Steven Glinert

It's like... It's like... Basically, the magnet manufacturing, which you need for any autonomous warfare, that's... All China. It's like 93%. Like go to any robotics startup and they'll tell you like, oh my God, I can't get anything in the United States. Like PCB manufacturing. They do it faster.

Chapter 6: What are the implications of decentralization in global governance?

1504.302 - 1520.202 Steven Glinert

They do it better. They have incredible capacity. So like for all the things that we care about from modern warfare, which is all economy. Yeah. Like China can scale up. Like in a long conflict, we will lose. Like in a short conflict-

0

1521.464 - 1525.212 Balaji Srinivasan

It's not a long conflict. Go ahead. I'll figure out what you're saying and I'll say something.

0

1525.233 - 1541.614 Steven Glinert

Go ahead. In a short conflict, I don't know. 50-50. Who knows? That's what they say over Taiwan. But a long conflict, they will like crush us in production. And like I think that there's a lot of people in the Trump admin community who have admirable ideas.

0

1541.935 - 1567.654 Steven Glinert

Um, I think, uh, Dave Copley, for example, has some really admirable ideas about how to get that, to, to, to get at least claw our edge back, but it's hard. It's a 10 year effort. And who knows how many years we have until like, no, like who knows how much time we have, but like it, it, it's going to be very hard for the United States military to fight a long war. Um, uh,

0

1567.634 - 1574.464 Steven Glinert

against China and, you know, unless, like, you... I want to just give some numbers here, okay?

1574.484 - 1596.958 Balaji Srinivasan

Here's, can you see the screen? Yeah, yeah, I've seen these numbers. Yeah, it's insane. It's wild. But here we are. So can you guys see this? The CSAS? Not yet. So the U.S. military exhausted its inventory of some types of long-range missiles within the first week of a Taiwan conflict. Taiwan used up its entire inventory of anti-ship. So it's not, forget about a long war.

1597.519 - 1615.454 Balaji Srinivasan

It's basically, it like just goes to zero very, very, very, very quickly, right? And so this is also, this is a graph I was saying with the US military is made in China. There's a JDAM, the Tomahawk, the supplier supplier is in China, okay? And this dominance has been increasing over time. There's some like, you know, attempt to kind of stop this over here.

1615.935 - 1628.578 Balaji Srinivasan

But basically the thing about, so, you know, the thing about a supply chain is I've actually managed supply chains in, you know, biotech and genomics. Um, It is complicated for the following reasons.

1628.638 - 1648.318 Balaji Srinivasan

First is, the very simplest is, you've got a list of your parts in a spreadsheet, and you've got supplier one, supplier two, supplier three, and country A, country B, country C, price A, price B, price C. And the thing is, what you first don't know is who their vendors' vendors are, right? Because those vendors change over time. Any supply chain is dynamic, right?

Chapter 7: How do political ideologies shape responses to technological changes?

2845.873 - 2861.214 Balaji Srinivasan

What happened to Korea? Is there a Korea? Did Koreans say we? No, there's North Korea and South Korea, right? What happened to China? It was communist and nationalist, right? What happened to India? There was partition. All around the rest of the world, what happened to Russia? They had the Russian Civil War and the capitalists had to leave or be murdered.

0

2861.294 - 2882.2 Balaji Srinivasan

Obviously, what happened in Germany, right? This is something where in much of the rest of Eurasia, they just lost their minds and they just had a serious all-out fight between left and right or whatever factions, often multiple factions. And that's obviously coming here. That's coming to the U.S. And you're in the middle of it. And it's a cold civil war that's ramping up.

0

2882.621 - 2910.975 Steven Glinert

So I know you, we've debated this before, but I actually like, The more salient power structure shift that I see is like a resorting of global power. And then I see that a secondary... Like, I don't know what happens to America. Like, it's not my expertise and I don't want to weigh in it. But like, there is a resorting of global power. And like, I see an ending in which China rules the world.

0

2911.536 - 2926.321 Steven Glinert

I see a... In which I'm very scared of. I see a Chimerica ending, right? When we come to some resolution with them. And... I don't know what happens to the rest of the world. I don't know what happens to Europe. I don't know what happens to the Middle East.

0

2926.381 - 2952.467 Balaji Srinivasan

It might just be anarchy, right? Well, so let me give a thesis on that. And actually, there's something that's slightly more cheery, okay, which is as follows. There's some doerism going on in the show today. Well, I think of myself as a total, like, you know what you do at a company? Bad news first, right? Bad news first, be an adult, rip the Band-Aid, give it to me straight, right?

2952.907 - 2972.901 Balaji Srinivasan

That is, that's the only way you can manage any numerical operation, right? Like, basically, as a CEO, you're, you know, a founder, CEO, every day you wake up, all right, what blew up today? Would somebody be an anti... Like, imagine if Google's... Like, their website was down and someone on Google's website is down. They said, what, are you a Facebook shill?

2973.202 - 2988.039 Balaji Srinivasan

Why are you saying something bad about Google? You know, right? Like, complete and total realism is absolutely necessary for self-improvement. Okay. So, with that said, let me lay the stage here. I think what's going to happen... First, have you followed what's going on with Mark Carney?

2990.743 - 3017.039 Steven Glinert

I mean, I think that he's... This is like, yeah, this is the bad ending, right? Like, you know, this is the, my, my, Rush Doshi, quoting him again, calls it the heroin ending, right? The heroin, like Europe and Canada get like basically de-industrialized by China. They bleed out like a heroin addict. And like, we're really left alone. And that's a China rules the world. Yes, this is exactly it.

3017.079 - 3019.782 Steven Glinert

Like, this is the China rules the world scenario.

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