Chapter 1: What recent military actions have the US and Israel taken against Iran?
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Jack McLennan was 27, fit and visibly strong. He was trained well. He knew how to hit and I was gobsmacked. He seemed ready for anything, but then he suddenly vanished. I was just talking to him last night, like, how the hell does that happen?
Chapter 2: Is there a possibility for a peace deal in the current conflict?
I'm Rob Bergen. Join me as I investigate what became of Jack in the new season of Unravel.
There has to be something more nefarious going on.
Search for the Unravel podcast on ABC Listen or wherever you get your podcasts. The US military is striking Iran and Israel has ramped up its attacks in southern Lebanon. So is there really a chance of a peace deal? And does the Israeli leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, even want one as he faces an election within months? Today, Dov Waxman, Professor of Israel Studies at UCLA, on Netanyahu's tactics.
I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal land in Sydney. This is ABC News Day. Dov, we're going to consider the future of the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and what his aims are before an election this year, which could be sooner rather than later, couldn't it?
Well, at the moment, it seems... Most likely that the election will take place as scheduled at the end of October. It could all change in the next day or two.
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Chapter 3: What are Netanyahu's political strategies leading up to the election?
Some of the opposition parties are hoping for an earlier election to take place in September. But whether it takes place in September or October, there will definitely be an election this year. And Netanyahu's future is really very much up for grabs right now.
Yeah. And what are the polls showing us? What are the Israelis thinking of Benjamin Netanyahu at this point?
Well, in terms of the latest polling, his party is still likely to receive the Likud party, still likely to receive the largest share of the vote, which would give it the greatest share of seats in the parliament. But it doesn't look like it's going to be able to form a coalition. At the same time, the opposition to Netanyahu is also projected not to get a majority of seats in the parliament.
All right, OK, well, let's come back to this election in a moment.
Chapter 4: How are the latest polls reflecting public opinion on Netanyahu?
Dov, we know that Benjamin Netanyahu, he was instrumental in convincing Donald Trump to begin the war against Iran. And while peace negotiations are still underway to end that war, the Israeli leader has intensified attacks in southern Lebanon, hasn't he? Just tell me what's going on and why he's doing it.
Yeah, as the peace talks are progressing or appear to be progressing with Iran, Netanyahu's really decided to escalate the situation very dramatically in Lebanon.
Shots ring out on Lebanon's border with Israel. In the latest escalation in its conflict with the militant group Hezbollah, Israel is warning residents from across southern Lebanon to evacuate the region. This is a major development which could affect hundreds of thousands of people and we are already seeing reports that many are fleeing the area...
There's really not been a ceasefire in Lebanon, although that was officially announced and it was tied to the ceasefire between the United States and Iran. And now Israel is calling for the complete evacuation of southern Lebanon, basically. In many ways, this, I think, is a response to the prospect of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran.
And this is not something that Netanyahu wanted to happen. I think many Israelis are disappointed with the best inconclusive results of the war with Iran. And Netanyahu is therefore under the defensive in that. He's also under a lot of criticism for failing to deal with the continuing threat that Hezbollah poses to Israeli citizens in northern Israel.
And so really, he's trying to signal to his domestic audience that, you know, whatever Trump decides to do with Iran, over which I should say Netanyahu is basically very little influence at this point. He's really a spectator to those peace talks between the United States and Iran. He's determined to show that at least when it comes to
Lebanon and Hezbollah, he's going to be independent from Trump and he's going to do what he thinks is in Israel's best interest and the hope, which I think is a futile hope, that somehow, you know, another military offensive against Hezbollah will lead to that group's disarmament in Lebanon, which is, I think, an unlikely outcome.
Yeah, so even if the Iran war was to end and Trump got out of it, which is clearly what he wants to do, Netanyahu could continue this conflict against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
He could. I mean, the question of whether President Trump will allow him to do that is a big question. The Iranians want to tie a ceasefire with... the United States to a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. They want to link these two wars. And the Trump administration and certainly the Israeli government have tried to resist that linkage and tried to say these are two separate things.
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Chapter 5: What escalation has Netanyahu initiated in southern Lebanon?
Right, because Netanyahu, he hasn't really achieved any of his aims, has he, in Iran or in Lebanon at this point? Iran or Gaza, for that matter. So how did the Israeli people view that?
Yeah, I think, you know, he's made a lot of promises to Israelis over the last couple of years. promising to restore their sense of security after the disaster of October 7th. He promised to decisively defeat Hamas in the Gaza Strip. He promised that he would defeat Hezbollah. And he also said that he would ensure that Iran wouldn't have a nuclear program.
And not only has he failed, but this has come at great cost, of course, to the Israeli public. I mean, they've endured very serious airstrikes and attacks from Iran. attacks from Hezbollah and Israeli soldiers are dying on a regular basis from drone attacks from Hezbollah. And the Israelis are still in Gaza with no prospects in sight of them likely to leave.
So, you know, all of this has really imposed a lot of costs on the Israeli public. And I think Netanyahu then is going to stand to be blamed for that. On top of, of course, the belief that's widely held among many Israelis that he's partly responsible, if not fully responsible for for the catastrophe that Israel endured on October the 7th, 2023.
Dov, let's come back now to Benjamin Netanyahu's future. As we said, he could face an election as early as September, although more likely in October, but regardless, it will happen this year. Now, in recent years, of course, he has remained in power only because of a coalition he formed with far-right figures. Just remind us of that.
That's right. I mean, this current government, which is widely regarded as the most far-right government in Israel's history, this government came into being in 2022 as a result of Netanyahu really engineering a kind of political marriage between two far-right parties.
I was very controversial at the time because it put in power people like Ismail Ben-Gvir, who was and is somebody who's really a far-right extremist. who actually has a criminal background. And this has, I think, been something that has been, you know, was controversial within Israel and is certainly controversial around the world.
And Mr Ben-Gavir, he serves as the National Security Minister at the moment, and he has made headlines for all the wrong reasons for a very long time. But most recently, because of this video, of course, he posted taunting handcuffed members of a Gaza flotilla, including, of course, Australians.
In the video captioned, Welcome to Israel, he's seen taunting some of the more than 400 activists who were on board the global Samud flotilla, which includes 11 Australians. They came with much pride as big heroes. Look, see how they look now. Not heroes and not anything. Terror supporters. I tell Prime Minister Netanyahu, give them to me for much more time.
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Chapter 6: How does Netanyahu's approach affect his political future?
What he cares about is his domestic audience, and particularly his far-right supporters. And, you know, they, I think, quite happy to see this kind of mistreatment.
The IDF, of course, it rejects allegations of abuse. And in relation to the flotilla, it does also reject allegations of abuse by IDF soldiers. Now, tell me then, you're saying, though, that Benjamin Netanyahu... will need still the likes of Mr Ben-Gavir to form a government after the next election. That's very likely.
That's right. I mean, on the one hand, you know, it was, I think, notable that Netanyahu did come out and criticize Ben-Gavir publicly for their video and for those actions. But domestically, he needs Ben-Gavir. He needs Ben-Gavir's party, because without that party in the Knesset, then there's no hope that Netanyahu will be able to cobble together a coalition to remain in power.
So he can't completely alienate Ben-Gavir. Right. And until he's really replaced, you know, I think these kinds of videos and that kind of treatment that we're hearing about is likely to continue because this is something that Ben Fair himself encourages and supports.
All right, well, Dov, for Benjamin Netanyahu, as he heads to this election, of course, political survival is critical to him, isn't it? Because he is also facing very serious corruption charges. Now, his supporters, including Donald Trump, say it's all a stitch-up and they're demanding he be pardoned by the Israeli president. How do you not? He's a wartime prime minister who's a hero.
How do you not give a point?
That's right. I mean, for now, while he still faces these criminal charges and the real possibility of being convicted, his political survival is actually the key for his personal freedom. As long as he remains in office, he's not going to be convicted of those charges. It's unlikely. He can drag out the trial, as he's been doing quite successfully.
But yeah, if he was to lose power, he could be in real legal jeopardy. And so that's, I think, the criticism and the complaint that many Israelis who support Netanyahu's policies or at least sympathetic to his policies question his motives.
Many people who might once have supported Netanyahu have become frustrated precisely because they believe that his own political interests are sometimes trumping Israel's diplomatic and other interests.
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Chapter 7: What role does the far-right coalition play in Netanyahu's government?
I think it's unlikely to see any real change in Israel's approach to Lebanon and to Hezbollah, so continued periods of warfare and of mass displacement of Lebanese civilians in Lebanon. And since it doesn't look like the issue of Iran's nuclear program is likely to be resolved in the next few weeks or months, you know, a continuation of Israel's on-again, off-again war with Iran as well.
So I think there's really any likelihood for any major changes in Israeli policies if Netanyahu remains in power, which of course will be of great frustration to many governments around the world who would like to see a different leader in Jerusalem.
Dov Waxman is a professor of Israel Studies at UCLA. This episode was produced by Sydney Peed. Audio production by Sam Dunn. Our supervising producer is David Cody. I'm Sam Hawley. ABC News Daily will be back again on Monday. Thanks for listening.