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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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As a nation of travellers, the Iran war has created huge uncertainty over whether we can still go ahead with our holidays, whether the airlines are likely to cancel our flights and how much more flying is going to cost us. Today, aviation expert Ian Douglas on where things currently stand and what to expect if the war doesn't end soon. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal land in Sydney.
This is ABC News Daily. Ian, we spoke about a month ago and, well, we didn't know then how long this war would last. But even then, the Gulf Airlines were experiencing severe flight disruptions.
Dubai's International Airport, which is the world's largest for international travel, has suspended all flights until further notice. Emirates and FlyDubai have temporarily halted operations. Qatar Airways has suspended all flights from Doha. British Airways has cancelled flights to Tel Aviv, Bahrain and Amman.
So tell me now, what are we seeing in terms of those flights?
Those flights are coming back a little bit. They're not back to the full schedule they were flying before, but the Gulf carriers are again flying into their hub airports in Doha and Dubai and Abu Dhabi and connecting passengers through. I've been tracking some of them not just out of Australia but out of Asia as well, and some of the pricing has been quite aggressive to get customers back again.
So I guess what people want to know as well is looking ahead, would it be okay now to book with these airlines, these golf carriers, or is it better just at the moment to avoid them?
I think it's reasonable to book on them. In fact, my partner has booked a flight to Europe by the golf carriers. So this household has already said, yes, we think it's reliable enough to go ahead.
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Chapter 2: What disruptions are airlines facing due to the war in Iran?
even though you may have sold tickets to somebody weeks or even months ago when the cost of operation was much lower.
So the airlines are at this point still carrying people who bought tickets earlier and at the same time are already paying out much higher fuel prices and it will have made some operations that were previously profitable marginal, some that were previously marginal unprofitable and that will start to reflect in schedules and what's available to buy.
And also for flights that haven't been booked yet or paid for yet, I presume the cost will be significantly higher.
We were giving some advice to friends recently. Should we book now or book later? And my advice is usually, you know, if you see an airfare you like, book now. Something they had been looking at at, I think, $5,000 turned out at $8,000 by the time they decided they really wanted to book because the prices had gone up, the demand had filtered onto fewer flights and the pricing had reflected that.
Well, the International Energy Agency's Fadi Biril, he has said that more flight cancellations are possible and in Europe there's only six weeks or so of jet fuel left.
If we are not able to open the Strait of Hormuz, I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights might be cancelled as a result of lack of jet fuel.
That does sound rather concerning.
It does, and in preparing to talk to you, I had a look at some of the other feedback. Not all of it is quite that dire, and the Europeans do have a process for sharing fuel around to make sure that one hub airport doesn't suddenly run out. But there have definitely been cancellations. Lufthansa in Germany announced yesterday about 20,000 flight cancellations over the upcoming European summer.
Most of them short haul flights within Europe, some of them flights that had become unprofitable at the high fuel prices.
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Chapter 3: How are Gulf airlines managing flight schedules during the conflict?
It needs to be able to fuel up at the destination point to come back. But the Europeans have at least six weeks, but probably more. And there is fuel coming out of the US and other sources.
I'd say at the moment there is a reasonably good chance that long-haul flights will operate pretty much as planned and particularly in Europe that most of the cancellations appear to be on short-haul flights and most of the damage in the industry appears to be low-cost carriers and short-haul operations as well. Ryanair had already cut back some flying.
EasyJet is now cutting back as well, looking at quite serious profit impacts from the increasing fuel prices. If we went to the US, Spirit Airlines, another low-cost carrier, on the edge of bankruptcy. So I think it's the low-cost, short-haul flying that's actually most at risk.
Well, the surging fuel prices, they are hitting the bottom line for Australian airlines, that's for sure.
Virgin is facing a $30 million to $40 million blowout in fuel prices in the second half of this year. Qantas, a much bigger operation, is staring at an $800 million fuel price hike by the end of June.
But the big ones, the big airlines all around the world, they will ride this out, won't they?
Yeah, the big ones in the Gulf will ride it out with their government parents and the large carriers like Qantas will certainly ride it out as well. Yeah, there are some carriers, particularly in Vietnam, for example, they've found themselves very short of fuel. The carriers in that market are struggling consequently. Other places seem to be less so. But yeah, it's going to be a difficult period.
And it looks a little bit like the problems of COVID, that it hit pretty hard and it will take quite a while to recover and get back to normal afterwards.
So tell me then how long will it take to get back to normal and should we get used to higher fares for a while to come?
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