Will Trump 'blink first' and end the war?
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Donald Trump went into the war with Iran thinking it would be over quickly. Now, more than seven weeks later, with a ceasefire about to end, there's still no obvious off-ramp, with uncertainty surrounding a second round of peace talks in Pakistan. Today, a former Iran negotiator in the Trump administration, Nate Swanson, on what the US president needs to do to end the war and reopen the Strait of Homs. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily.
Nate, we first spoke to you at the start of the war in Iran on day one. That was more than 50 days ago now. So has it been going as you would have predicted?
In some respects, yes, but in most respects, no. I mean, I think it was not totally surprising that Iran escalated so quickly based on the scope and size of the initial US and Israeli attack. But never, I think, would I ever have guessed that it would go this long and that it would be still so messy 50 days in without a clear idea of how exactly this ends and really still even at this point what the objective is.
Now, up until July last year, you were on Trump's Iran negotiating team. So just tell me, back then, were you articulating what the risks of going into this war would be? And was he listening?
Well, I'm a career civil servant across multiple administrations and, as you noted, with the Iran team at the end. I do not have a personal relationship with President Trump by any measure. Never briefed him, unlike other presidents. But to his team, you know, when I was still there... I think they were genuinely interested in diplomacy, but obviously there was a willingness to use force that was kind of unique from other administrations. I think in his first term, he did the strike that killed Gossam Soleimani. And then before I left, there was the Midnight Hammer operation that we did in connection with the Israelis. So, I mean, Trump was clearly more comfortable using force than other U.S. presidents.
And I think, yeah, he didn't really fully understand – the risks associated and how a conflict could go bad so quickly. So that is kind of unique to the president. And I think, you know, he has a very, very small inner circle. And I think they're all fairly confident this would be easy, which was a mistake.
All right, well, a two-week ceasefire has been in place, but the Strait of Hormuz has been an ongoing problem. And, I mean, events have hardly been peaceful, have they, with the US attacking an Iranian cargo ship?
A nighttime mission in the Arabian Sea. US Marines boarding an Iranian-flagged cargo ship after its engine room was fired upon. Vacate your engine room. We're prepared to subject you to disabling fire.
Did you predict any of this in relation to the Strait of Hormuz that has become such a massive problem for the entire world?
Yes and no. I mean, I thought Iran would lash out the Gulf and try to shut down the Strait.
What was Donald Trump's initial expectation regarding the war with Iran?
I think what surprised me was really at the first outset is that Iran was able to get their own exports out for really up until the last two weeks. So for the first six weeks of the war, they basically kept traffic from the Gulf out, but their own exports of oil to China were still basically happening. So to me, that was quite shocking and it was quite significant. And I think also, the Strait has always been this theoretical threat that the US and others have been worried about, but it was never a practical reality. And Iran made it a reality You know, almost instantly in the first, you know, 24 to 48 hours. And I think it's really proven to be in many ways much more effective than any of the other means of deterrence.
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