China in Focus: Traversing the Emerging Markets Landscape | EP170

In this episode, Peter Lampert, lead portfolio manager of the International Equity Strategy, discusses the recent Chinese stimulus and its effects on emerging markets. He highlights key long-term risks in China, including weak sentiment, regulatory challenges, and geopolitical tensions, while emphasizing the potential of companies like Tencent and Tencent Music. The conversation also covers Turkey's Bim, a discount retailer thriving amid economic uncertainty. Peter explains how the portfolio's success stems from stock selection, especially with stealth performers like Vietnam's FPT and Taiwan's IGS, and the importance of balancing macro risks with company-specific growth potential.   Key Takeaways:   •China's recent stimulus signals a shift from restrictive policies to boosting economic growth, leveraging the U.S. Fed's easing cycle to inject liquidity and stabilize the economy. •The stimulus could mitigate three key challenges: weak consumer sentiment, regulatory uncertainty, and geopolitical risks. While long-term issues persist, the focus on growth reduces the likelihood of worst-case scenarios in the near term. •Macro factors and bottom-up analysis are deeply intertwined in portfolio decisions. As risks shift, so do portfolio positions. •Higher macro risks in China lead to applying higher discount rates and requiring better ROI. Growth projections for economically sensitive companies are adjusted lower due to structural challenges, leading to exits when valuations no longer meet the stricter risk criteria. •Companies with independent growth drivers can perform well despite China's economic challenges, as they are less reliant on the broader economy and can thrive even in a weaker market environment. •One example is Tencent, whose strong management, dominant WeChat position, and conservative monetization approach offer growth opportunities. Despite China's economic challenges, Tencent can pull monetization levers, making its valuation attractive amid broader pessimism. •This year's strong performance of the emerging markets portfolio has been driven by careful stock selection, focusing on lesser-known "stealth performers" like FPT, IGS, and Aegis Logistics, which consistently generate shareholder value. •Peter highlighted one such performer: Bim, a Turkish discount retailer. Bim has thrived despite economic challenges. With Turkey's economic outlook improving, Bim is positioned for long-term success as it continues to offer value to consumers.   Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Peter Lampert, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager   This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.   Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.    Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com    Follow us on social:    LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/  Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

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