Losses and Lessons
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What is the overall outlook for the Blue Jays’ 2026 season?
It's at the letters for Tuesday, September 26th, 2026. Arden Swelling, Ben Nicholson-Smith, our producer, Christian Ryan. Ben, welcome to the final week of 2026 Blue
Jays baseball. That's it. It took 157 games, maybe 156 or 155. I'm not sure when the final moment was that it really became clear that this was not going to be their year. But at some point since we last recorded, certainly since you and I last spoke, it's become clear that, you know what, this is not their year. So... Between Dylan Cease and everything going on with the current team, there's a lot to get to. And I think even as we look ahead, you know, flipping to this final week, what that looks like with this team presumably not being in contention and even heading into the offseason, what their biggest needs are. I mean, it's still super interesting. I'm still really fascinated to see what decisions they're going to make.
But yeah, that's pretty much it for 2026.
I feel bad for the people who still have hope, who are still saying, hey, they're alive. They're not mathematically eliminated. Are you saying that those people just should not feel that way? Would you just like to stomp all over their dreams?
I don't want to do any stomping on dreams. And that's certainly not the way I would put it. Look, the most wins the Blue Jays can possibly finish with in 2026 is 82. And I just, I don't really see a pathway where that's going to be enough. So, you know, I would love to be wrong. I think that the odds and the numbers and the math and common sense is all pointing us in one direction. And that direction is, it's not their year. It's it. It's over for 2026. I
hope there's no kids listening right now. Like you just kind of told them the Easter bunny isn't real. Well, you told them that. I just told them the 2026
season isn't going to end. I didn't say anything about the Easter bunny.
Look, the Blue Jays, their elimination number is two. So if we sit here on Tuesday, September the 22nd, the Blue Jays are going to, we assume, play, weather permitting. And the White Sox and Guardians are also going to play. So it is entirely possible that by the end of today, they are eliminated. But they are not yet eliminated. If they win all of their remaining five games and the Guardians and White Sox each win, uh go one and four the blue jays can still make it that is still on the table for all of you eternal optimists out there
Yeah, it's technically possible. Like I said, common sense says it's over. My brain has moved on beyond that possibility.
How is Dylan Cease’s health affecting his performance and the Jays’ rotation?
And I'm looking at the rest of the American League playoff picture, very intrigued to see where that goes. I'm looking at the Blue Jays and what they do, presumably not throwing Dylan Cease. But hey, they have one final home series left. That can still be a meaningful opportunity. series as the Jays return home and kind of have that chance to connect with their fans one last time and then guess what it's time to flip the page it's time to get better for 2027 and try to you know both with the players on this roster get more out of them and also start at least having a broad discussion about about what it will look like to go outside the organization and improve this group for next year and beyond.
So apparently nobody has given the Blue Jays this cold dose of reality because they are still leaving the door open that Dylan Cease could start during the Cincinnati Reds series if it is relevant and if Cease is feeling well enough to do it. Sounds like you are not expecting that those two requirements are going to be met. That's
right. I am not expecting that those two requirements will be met. And I think that, you know, largely it just comes down to
where they are in
the standings. I don't think those games are going to mean anything when you look at how you've outlined things and all the things that would have to fall into place for the Blue Jays to still be in it on the weekend. Now, as for Cease, I mean, clearly when he came back on Friday, it just was non-competitive. The velo was not just down, but way down.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the overall outlook for the Blue Jays’ 2026 season?
0:06–2:46
2
How is Dylan Cease’s health affecting his performance and the Jays’ rotation?
2:46–6:53
3
What did the MRI reveal about Cease’s shoulder and what does it mean for his 2026 season?
6:53–10:28
4
How should the Blue Jays manage pitcher workload to avoid over‑use like Cease’s marathon season?
10:28–14:18
5
What are the prospects for Max Scherzer’s future with Toronto?
14:18–19:51
6
Which offseason moves (free agents, trades, prospects) could improve the Jays for 2027?
19:51–24:19
7
How can the organization get Vladimir Guerrero Jr. back on track for 2027?
24:19–30:00
8
What key lessons should the Blue Jays take from 2026 and apply to the next season?
30:00–1:19:09