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Australian Finance Podcast

📈 ASX share review: Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)

11 Aug 2022

Transcription

Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.

Chapter 1: What is Woolworths Group Ltd and what do they offer?

0.031 - 26.345 Owen

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26.786 - 44.868 Owen

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45.469 - 63.245 Owen

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63.726 - 89.472 Owen

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That means it's not specific to you, your needs, goals or objectives. So don't act on the information until you've spoken with your financial advisor. You'll find our full disclosure, disclaimer and link to our financial services guide in the show notes. Kate, welcome to this episode of the Australian Finance Podcast. It is good to be back, Owen. It is indeed.

108.063 - 111.307 Owen

This episode is unofficially not sponsored by Axel Coffee Roasters.

111.607 - 117.894 Kate

Our favourite coffee shop in Melbourne, which I keep discovering there's more and more of them. Every suburb we go to, there seems to be an Axel.

118.154 - 130.748 Owen

There does. But you did say our favourite. I've got to pull you up right there, Kate. I still think Patricia's is the best coffee in Melbourne. No. But I don't think you like it because you sit on milk crates when you're there in an alleyway.

130.728 - 154.339 Owen

yeah i think like it's a particular experience that works for some people i always like it when you take new people to patricia's this is a melbourne cafe for those of you that aren't familiar with it and you order like say like a cappuccino and oftentimes the first question is have you been to patricia's before because they don't do cappuccinos you just get coffee you just get what you get and i love that okay okay anyway we're talking about woolworths today

Chapter 2: How does Woolworths compare to its competitors?

707.222 - 712.911 Kate

Because they kind of link together a little bit. Yeah, right. But if you want a toaster. Yeah, okay.

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712.951 - 715.935 Owen

If you want a toaster, okay. There you go. Go there, not Woolies.

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716.676 - 719.961 Kate

Yeah, and Woolies also used to have the Safeway brand.

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720.222 - 721.143 Owen

In Victoria, yeah.

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721.163 - 728.715 Kate

Yeah, and they bought Safeway, but then they rebranded the mold of Woolies. And apparently the last store Safeway saw to be rebranded was in Wodonga, which happened in 2017.

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Okay.

729.959 - 747.9 Owen

So where I grew up, out towards the Yarra Valley in Victoria, there was a Safeway. When I'd speak to people from interstate, they'd be like, what are you talking about Safeway? There's actually, there's a Safeway in Canada, for anyone that's listening from Canada, hello. Yeah, in Canada, they have Safeway as well. They're pretty cool little supermarkets as well.

747.88 - 771.643 Owen

So just to confirm, so Woolworths de-merged this thing called Endeavor Group, which trades under the ticket symbol EDV, I believe. That was in June 2021. So about a year ago, June 2021. And that company owns Dan Murphy's, BWS, ALH, which is like hotels and whatever, Cellar Masters and Jimmy Brings. So those brands are now not part of Woolworths.

771.623 - 775.65 Kate

But Woolworths still owns part of Endeavor Group and they're still linked together.

Chapter 3: What is the history of Woolworths and its founding?

2364.253 - 2383.105 Owen

If you get a term deposit, you get a term deposit of 3%, right? So they're not the same thing. Woolworths shares are risky. A term deposit is not risky or less risky. So for the money, you'd probably just go with the term deposit if you were interested in yield, unless you thought the dividend was going to grow. So then the question becomes, how fast can Woolworths grow?

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Over time, when I do my modeling of a company like Woolworths, what I assume is I assume the company will grow about the same as the industry. And the industry in supermarkets in Australia is pretty mature. So you'd expect it to grow around the GDP. So that's like the growth of the country. about that rate, maybe plus one or 2%. So it's not growing very fast. It might be growing at 5% per year.

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2410.631 - 2416.181 Owen

That's a whole industry. And so a company like Woolworths within that, maybe it grows at 5%, right?

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2417.002 - 2421.23 Kate

And they're limited about how much they can put their prices up because they've got Coles right around the corner.

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2421.31 - 2437.57 Owen

Yeah, so they've got competition. So one thing that happened many moons ago with the former management team, was that Woolworths started ratcheting up its prices. And at first it looked great because remember what I said before, if Woolworths just increased the price of iceberg lettuce, just even 10 cents, right?

2437.59 - 2453.845 Owen

Without no one noticing, that's 10 cents on every iceberg lettuce going back in profit because it doesn't cost them anything to increase prices. And Woolworths began to do that. And you could see that in the profit margins. They were saying, look at our profit margins. Well, they weren't saying it that loud because if they did say it that loud, everyone would notice and be like, hey.

2453.825 - 2475.824 Owen

They're charging us more. But for many years, they were increasing their prices. And what you can do is you can measure basically how much sales a supermarket makes for every square meter of store space. And you could see that rising. And Coles, by comparison, its profit margin was like 2.5%, where Woolworths was like 6%. And you would say, well, what's the difference?

2475.864 - 2492.583 Owen

They're very similar businesses. Maybe they're more efficient. But are they three times more efficient? Probably not. So they had higher prices. And consumers finally woke up to that. And there was a big reset that happened quite a few years ago, the mid 2010s. And Woolworths struggled for quite some time in the share market.

2493.304 - 2509.879 Owen

And you can see that in the share price, in the valuation, all that sort of stuff. And shareholders didn't like it. So they eventually got hurt by that. But then the company reset and now it's back on a good footing. With a business like Woolworths, I don't want to pay too high of a valuation.

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