ROLLUP: The Bull Market is On? | Zcash & NEAR | Kalshi Wash Trading | BlackRock Goes Onchain
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Is the early‑bull market actually confirmed and what evidence supports it?
Bankless Nation, it is the fourth week of September and we've got a bull market on our hands. It's a bull market, but Whose bull market is it? That is the question. The majors are up a little bit this week, while the middle of the market is up 30%, 40%, 50% in just seven days. So what's going on? Even crypto guru Ben Cowan has said that the bull market is on. We're gonna talk about, we're gonna dissect the current state of the bull market.
Yeah, I think once Ben says it's on, he's been bearish lately. Once he says it's on, that's confirmation enough uh for me. We also gotta discuss Zcash at a near 10 year high. I think that's a fundamental change in the market. And uh wanna get your take on it.
Which assets are emerging as the new leaders of this bull cycle instead of Bitcoin?
Also, David, tell me about Cul Sheet. They got cooked this week. There was a bunch of wash trading, a million identical, five thousand five hundred. Dollar trades. The Wall Street Journal is talking about this. Some guy on Twitter is talking about this. And also I saw Vitalik has blessed a prediction market called Truo. And also That token was up a lot. He said this is the prediction market without any of the corpo slop. So we'll discuss what that means. Meanwhile
As we discussed, the 30-year Treasury, the 10-year Treasury are all printing their highest yields since like 2004. Not only is it a crypto bull market, but it is also a bond yield bull market, which is bad. Usually that's bad. Do we care? Does Bitcoin even care about high yields? I think that's another question that I want to ask. Let's just look at the charts, however. Bitcoin.
How are rising bond yields and the debasement trade affecting crypto investors?
Made its first leg up from like $63,000 up to $78,000. And people weren't totally sure if that was, you know, a head fake or not. But we have since made a second leg up from about $77,000 up to $85,000. And now people think it's on. I also think it's on. The second leg up off the 200-week moving average, I think, is a pretty big deal. That marks a eight-month high. High on Bitcoin, the highest prices since January of this year. And so the people who have previously been been saying there is going to be a fourth quarter dump, you know, we're not done through the bear market.
What is the Kalshi wash‑trading controversy and why does it matter?
We're going to once again touch the 200-week moving average, once again in fourth quarter, maybe even go below it. Those people are starting to change their tune.
Yeah, I think there's starting to be growing consensus even among the psych the crypto cycle investor experts, people like Michael Nado from the TDR. The four year cyclers. Uh Michael Nado from TDR, I would say, is one of them.
Why did Vitalik Buterin back the Trueo prediction market and what does it aim to solve?
Uh Ben Cohen, also from Into the Cryptoverse, is another one of them. And both of them are aligning and saying that the weight of probability is Is exactly where they'd they'd want to see it for calling an early bull market. In fact, we'll get to Ben in a second because he's kind of flipped on this. He was holding out. He thought we were still in the bear market, that there would be another leg down, that we wouldn't see a light at the end of the tunnel until sometime in October. And he's on this week.
What new tokens and institutional crypto products are launching and how might they impact the market?
He's apparently changed his mind on this. But Michael Nato, I talked to him on Wednesday for the TDR podcast. And he said, I'm ready to say it now. He was previous weeks, he was cautious that this was an early bull market. And he's saying he wasn't sure yet, but now he's at 85% probability. I think there were a number of metrics that really nailed that to him. One is the golden cross was confirmed. Okay, so for people who don't know what a golden cross is, that's when the 200-day uh moving average Um, the the 50 day moving average crosses the 200 day moving average. And if that finally happened in previous cycles that has indicated that we have broken the back of the bear market and we've entered the early bull phase.
He has some other reasons that he thinks we're in the early bull market. So there's a a reset in the holder structure. You know, he follows these on-chain metrics of the cohorts, the cost base of the cohort. And and which cost basis are holding what coins, uh, where you see this process of coin cycling from weak hands back to strong hands, and the strong hands form the base for the next market.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
Is the early‑bull market actually confirmed and what evidence supports it?
0:04–0:50
2
Which assets are emerging as the new leaders of this bull cycle instead of Bitcoin?
0:50–1:45
3
How are rising bond yields and the debasement trade affecting crypto investors?
1:45–2:22
4
What is the Kalshi wash‑trading controversy and why does it matter?
2:22–2:44
5
Why did Vitalik Buterin back the Trueo prediction market and what does it aim to solve?
2:44–3:13
6
What new tokens and institutional crypto products are launching and how might they impact the market?
3:13–1:00:34
Speakers
2 identifiedMore from Bankless
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