Chapter 1: What predictions do the hosts make for the MLB season?
boring Sammy's here Pat's here wait there is nobody I'd rather be talking to on this bright beautiful sunny morning in Florida than Sammy James and Pat Brown of the play Tessie podcast Gordo here with you guys for another edition of bib notes and today man this is the last bib notes that we are going to be recording until the season starts like the next time we jump on this podcast
Games are going to have been played. How crazy is that?
I can't get here soon enough, dude. I love the WBC. I love spring training. I'm ready, though. I'm ready for the real thing. We're so close yet so far. It's just one week. Just one week.
The longest week of our lives. That's the thing. I enjoyed the WBC so much. I definitely enjoyed it more than I enjoyed the last ones. And it felt like playoff baseball for sure. That said, like as a fan, like I'm a Red Sox fan and I love fantasy baseball. I love watching the league. I love watching. I just love watching baseball and having it on every night.
There's something to be said about having it back. And it's just, damn, like the world just gets better the second March 26th hits.
I'm not really a baseball fan, honestly. I don't really watch. They do say it's boring. Yeah, I just, it's not my thing. How did I get here?
I don't know. What's your hat say?
Hockey isn't important.
All right. So on today's episode, here's what we're doing. We're doing award predictions, MVPs, Cy Youngs, both leagues. And at the end, we'll do a breakout player pick. So not necessarily like a rookie of the year type deal, but a breakout player. The only rules for the MVP and Cy Young, you cannot pick a player that won it last year. So for MVP, you're not allowed to pick Otani and Judge.
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Chapter 2: How do the hosts feel about the World Baseball Classic (WBC)?
I believe I've mentioned this on PlayTesty or Baseballs and Boring before. So this might not come as a surprise. I'm going with Julio Rodriguez. I've been a big J-Rod fan for a while. Center field defense is premium. That'll never slump. But the offense, that's what does slump. He's had issues starting off cold out in Seattle, which is a tough place to hit.
You look at the second half of his 2025 season. Unbelievable. 900 OPS on the dot. 18 homers stole 13 bags. And that's, like I said, in addition to the defense. If Julio can do that, not even for a full season, for 75% of the season instead of 50% of the season. He's going to get MVP votes. He's kind of a dark horse candidate. Like Gordo said, we're not picking Judge.
He's the obvious odds-on favorite. But I think Julio can make some noise, and it wouldn't shock me if he got in the mix in 2026. So that's my pick for AL MVP.
He's crazy because... I mean, now, what is it, back-to-back years? It basically has been his whole career that the first halves have just been so under... His starts to the season have been so underwhelming, yet we recognize him as this true superstar in the game. And it's because of what he's been able to do in the second halves.
And it's like, okay, if you can do that for a full season, we are talking about you as the AL MVP with the defense, with the speed. If he can hit in the first half like he does every year in the second half, he is that dude.
Yeah, and he just turned 25 as well.
Yeah.
He's not an... He hasn't... He's been in the league for a few years, but he's still young. He's still very young, and his swing decisions, that's what gets him in trouble. He goes through stretches where he's at bats. It's not the result that's really the damning part. It's the way he gets to the result where the swing decisions are terrible. He's just not having long at-bats.
They're short, and it hurts the Mariners. It hurts his numbers. So he has to avoid that. And I think... He is now, how many games under his belt at this point? About 600 big league games under his belt at this point. So I do have faith that this is the turning point of his kind of slow start issues. Yeah.
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Chapter 3: What are the rules for selecting MVP and Cy Young candidates?
I guess as long as the Royals make the playoffs, because I know everyone with an MVP vote cares about that. So I guess that's another potential roadblock here. But if the Royals make the playoffs, Bobby Witt Jr. hits 35 homers. We know the defense is going to be there. We know the speed and the stolen bases are going to be there. We know he's going to get hits.
If he can hit over 30 home runs, this guy legitimately has a good shot to be the AL MVP this year.
Gordo, his peak was in... Peak. I'm talking about him like he's been around forever. This is his fifth season in the big leagues. But his best season so far was 2024, in which he played 161 games, led the league in that.
211 hits led the league in that 45 doubles 11 triples 32 home runs 109 rbis 31 stolen bases anyone the batting title hitting 332 with a 977 ops while winning the gold glove at shortstop holy shit that's a good player where do you finish the mvp that year second to judge to judge yeah 9.4 b war
The thing with Witt is that's a guy who at what, 24 years old, 25 years old?
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Chapter 4: Who are the top picks for the AL MVP this season?
Last year was his age 25 season.
Okay. That's crazy. And that's a guy who you could make a, I would say, tangible debate because I agree with it. He's the third best player in baseball. Otani, Judge. Otani, Judge, and Witt. Yeah. I think I would go Bobby Witt at three. Yeah, maybe. So, I mean, inevitably, Bobby Witt is going to win an MVP at some point, and it wouldn't surprise me if it was this year.
Yeah. And by the way, we're not doing repeat picks. So if Sammy picked J-Rod, I couldn't take J-Rod. I took Bobby Witt. Pat's not taking Bobby Witt. Pat, who are you taking? It's not Bobby Witt.
It's not Bobby Witt. It's not J-Rod. I'm actually going. I wouldn't really call it under the radar because he had a great year last year, but I'm going early in his career MVP. I'm taking Junior Caminero. Um, last year had about a four and a half war, which, you know, which is fine. Um, hit two 64, 45 home runs, 110 RBI. And he had an eight 46 OPS.
And I know that there are going to be people who are like, Oh, we played the minor league ballpark. Well, he hit more home runs on the road than at home. No, that's not right. He did. He had 23 home runs on the road, 22 at home. What was the OPS difference? That's what's scary. Okay. So at home, he hit three 13 on the road. He hit two 18. OPS wise, 954 at home, 743 away.
What's the deal with that ballpark? Because I know it's the Yankee Stadium dimensions, but it is a more hitter friendly environment than Yankee Stadium. Yeah. Because of what? Like the air? Yeah.
There's just more airflow. It's not like in a bowl like Yankee Stadium. The ball just flies. Pat, can I give you something that might make you more confident? Junior Caminero did everything you just said last year with almost the worst launch angle sweet spot percentage in the league. So he wasn't launching the ball consistently, and still he put up 45 home runs.
So that coupled with this is why I'm going Junior Caminero. In the second half in 63 games, 22 home runs, 50 RBI. He hit 282 with a 926 OPS. Ooh. If you extrapolate that over 182 games, you're talking about a guy who's going to hit 50 home runs and hit about high 270s. 162 games? 162, yeah. What did I say, 182? Yeah. 162, yeah. Imagine 182, though. I know. Oh, my God.
So he hit one less home run in 28 less games, first half compared to second half. So this is a guy with 50 home run potential. He can hit... Ideally, you know, 270s, 280s, knock in well over 100, 110, and his OPS is going to kick around 900. So he's young.
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Chapter 5: What factors influence the selection of the NL MVP?
Beautiful.
Pat, who's your pick? Let's hear it. So I'm going with the guy who had his cup of coffee in the majors last year and didn't do necessarily great, but earned himself a long-term contract. I'm going with Samuel Basayo. Oh, that's a good one. Last year, 31 games in the majors, four home runs, 15 RBI, only a 165 average and a 559 OPS.
But if you look at his AAA stats from last year, this is a guy who hit 270, 966 OPS, 23 home runs, 67 RBI. So the hit tool has always been there. I don't know if he necessarily projects out as a long-term catcher, but he'll spell Adley every now and then. He'll get some innings a catcher.
The big thing with me, with Basayo, is I think the perfect guy to kind of mentor him and learn from is Pete Alonzo. I think having Pete in that locker room, Taking him under his wing, whether it be plate approach, swing, playing first, whatever it may be. I think it's going to do all the good in the world for him. And then not to mention his spring training stats this year. 29 trips to the plate.
He's hitting 320 with a 974 OPS. 21 years old, so he's still super, super young. But this is a guy that the Orioles didn't just blindly throw money at him. They know how good he is. He's a guy who on every list was a top 10 prospect last year. He's going to, I would imagine, primarily see a lot of time at DH, which I think will help him a ton in terms of producing offensively.
Yeah, I think the sky's the limit. I think he's going to be so good for so long.
Rafi 2.0. He's a reincarnated Devers. Wow. Sammy, who you got for your pick?
All right, guys. This is the one that Joe hates. It is a almost 31-year-old former top prospect who has never put up. Well, he had one good season. Who normally does not put up even one B-War.
So just to paint a picture of the room right now, Pat is peering out of the corner of his eye and can see Sammy's laptop, and he's got quite the face on. Sammy, can you tell me who it is? Yoan Moncada.
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