Let's talk about how Trump lost and gave Iran something better than a nuke....
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Well, howdy there internet people, it's Belle again. So today, we're going to talk about how Trump lost and gave Iran something better than a nuke.
What are the reasons nations engage in conflict?
Okay, we're going to start off by going over why nations engage in conflict. It isn't to hold a boxing match and see who can fight the best. It's to advance the position and policies of the state. As Clausewitz said, war is a continuation of politics by other means. The purpose of war is to achieve a goal.
It's an instrument of policy. You can win all the battles and lose the war because policy aims weren't achieved. Likewise, you can lose the battles and win the war.
How do policy aims influence the outcome of wars?
War isn't a video game where winning the battles gets you a victory. What were the policy aims of this war? Nobody really knows, right? But vaguely, it's something to do with nuclear weapons. Trump won't let Iran have a nuke, and they want one, right? But do they, though? Or would a nuke just be the means to affect policy? What's the purpose of nukes today? To destroy cities? No, it's not 1945.
What is the significance of nuclear weapons in modern geopolitics?
Once that power was demonstrated, their use changed. It's to tie your national security to international security. We've talked about it before, when we talked about the EU standing on its own and needing more nukes to establish deterrence and make sure nobody brings a war to their soil. How do nukes do that? Is it the number of people lost? Do you believe the ruling class cares about that? Look at the numbers of Russians lost in Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands. The power of a nuke is the removal of economic and production capability. Don't believe me? Look at the response to COVID. Millions of people globally. The ruling class response was to encourage economies to stay open. The economy and production was more important.
Iran really doesn't need a nuke anymore because they now know, not think, but know they've tied their national security to international security. Trump admitted it himself. Look, problem with the straight, a guy can take a mine, drop it in the water and say, oh, it's unsafe. It's not like you're taking out an army or you're taking out a country. Even after Trump claimed they were militarily defeated, they control the straight. Trump just gave Iran their trinity test.
How has Iran's national security strategy evolved?
They know they can inflict global economic pain. Their national security is now tied to international security via economics. Not through mastery of fission, but by mastery of geography. Iran wanted to create a deterrent against invasion. Shutting down the Strait gives them a deterrent. No deal Trump might be able to work out can take that away from them. Their deterrent might be even better than a nuke, because shutting down the Strait doesn't carry the moral implication of threatening to wipe out a civilization. Iran's policy aims were advanced. Were U.S. policy aims advanced?
What alternative deterrents does Iran have besides nuclear weapons?
Winning wars is about changing the international landscape for the betterment of national interests. Do you think the U.S. achieved that? Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:01–0:14
2
What are the reasons nations engage in conflict?
0:14–0:49
3
How do policy aims influence the outcome of wars?
0:49–1:22
4
What is the significance of nuclear weapons in modern geopolitics?
1:22–3:00
5
How has Iran's national security strategy evolved?
3:00–3:45
6
What alternative deterrents does Iran have besides nuclear weapons?
3:45–4:00
Speakers
2 identifiedMore from Belle of the Ranch
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