Let's talk about Texas, Latinos, and the Gerrymander....

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Belle of the Ranch 4 min 2 speakers 5 chapters transcribed

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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

Beau of The Fifth Column 0:01

Well, howdy there, Internet people, it's Belle again. So today, we're going to talk about Texas, Latinos, and the gerrymander.

What are the concerns of Texas Republicans after the recent Senate race?

Beau of The Fifth Column 0:13

After the results of the state Senate race in Texas, where the Democratic candidate won a ruby red district by 14 points, Republicans are concerned. I've seen headlines describing them as freaking out over the results. I mean, I don't know if freaking out is the right term, but they're definitely in panic mode. But it's not really over the results. It's over the maps. Here's a question. Bell, I'm from Austin and watched you say pretty confidently that you think Republicans messed up the gerrymander by relying on Latino voters. Living here, I thought you were crazy, or maybe you were wish-casting.

How did Trump's policies affect Latino voter support in Texas?

Beau of The Fifth Column 0:59

But after the spanking Republicans just got, I wish I had paid more attention months ago. And now I can't find the videos. Lucky for you, it's definitely time to talk about it again. There's really just three simple parts to the equation. Let's start with this. Trump saw a pretty big uptick in support from Latino voters during the last election. Republicans believed this swing was permanent. So, when they gerrymandered Texas and redrew the maps, they counted heavily on Latino areas as friendly ground and based the maps around maintaining Trump's gains. But then, Trump enacted his policies. The landslide victory Democrats just got in Texas was definitely influenced by a massive swing in Latino voters.

What mistakes did Republicans make in their gerrymandering strategy?

Beau of The Fifth Column 1:56

So, what we have is a situation where Republicans redrew maps based on the 2024 voting habits of a demographic. Now they're finding out that the voting habits aren't the same in 2026. This has all the makings of a classic dummy-mander. See, they counted on the rural Latino vote heavily in those maps. They counted on that demographic to hold certain districts. And because they thought they would hold them, they could shuffle other demographics into districts that leaned blue in an attempt to drown out people's voices by picking the voters. The actual effect of this process may have been to make both the blue-leaning district and the district they pulled Republican-leaning demographics from more competitive.

Beau of The Fifth Column 2:52

Texas GOP consultant Brendan Steinhauser said, quote, The imagery coming out of Minnesota in the last few days has had a huge impact on not only Hispanic voters, but swing voters, independents in Texas and around the country.

Unknown 3:12

What's transpired there has definitely led to a bit of a political backlash.

What impact did recent events in Minnesota have on Texas voters?

Unknown 3:19

If you want to know how impactful this has been, Governor Abbott, an immigration hardliner who bust undocumented people to Democratic areas, knows that respect for ICE has fallen. He said, quote, The White House need to recalibrate on what needs to be done to make sure that respect is going to be reinstilled. When you have Abbott saying you need to adjust tactics, you've lost large portions of the country. We aren't going to know for sure until much closer to the election. But for those who suspected Texas Republicans dummy-mandered by being overconfident, those election results were promising. Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.

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