Let's talk about the GOP worrying about Texas flipping blue....

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Belle of the Ranch 3 min 2 speakers 6 chapters transcribed

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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

Beau of The Fifth Column 0:01

Well, howdy there, Internet people, it's Belle again.

What concerns do Republicans have about Texas flipping blue?

Beau of The Fifth Column 0:04

So today, we're going to talk about the GOP worrying about Texas flipping blue. There's always talk about Texas flipping blue, mainly from Democrats who are eager to see it happen. However, this time, the worry is coming from Republicans, Senate Republicans, in public. That's kind of new. especially in the way it's happening.

What implications does the upcoming Senate primary have for the GOP?

Beau of The Fifth Column 0:34

The Senate primary is just a few days away, and there's an incredibly high likelihood that incumbent Senator John Cornyn will head to a runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. That runoff is expected to be an incredibly expensive, mud-slinging mess. Two and a half months of the Republican Party spending money that it would prefer to save for the general election.

How might Ken Paxton's scandals affect his election chances?

Beau of The Fifth Column 1:01

Just the primary has cost Republicans $100 million.

What does the National Republican Senatorial Committee's memo reveal?

Beau of The Fifth Column 1:07

That amount would likely skyrocket during a primary runoff as Republicans try to keep Paxton off the ticket. The worry is pretty easy to explain. Paxton is popular with Republican primary voters, but his lengthy list of scandals might cause him to fail in a general election. Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune said, Honestly, if you look at the polling in a general election setting, I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that the seat flips, depending on who the Democrats nominate. The National Republican Senatorial Committee had a memo for donors that put their fears out there. The memo flatly says, Paxton puts the seed at risk. It cites polling data from early February that says Cornyn beats both likely Democratic challengers by a wider margin than Paxton.

Unknown 2:11

It's worth noting that their polling says Paxton is only a single point up against Crockett. This worry already showing up and being spoken in public means a number of things.

Beau of The Fifth Column 2:25

One is that the runoff is almost certain, where Republicans will once again spend millions. And the second thing is that if Paxton wins, the Republicans will view the seat as one they have to defend.

How could the Texas primary impact other Senate races across the country?

Beau of The Fifth Column 2:41

That means that Republicans will spend a bunch of money to defend the Texas seat.

Unknown 2:47

Every dollar spent in the Texas primary runoff or defending the seat in the general is a dollar the Republican Party doesn't have to spend in Maine or in North Carolina or in the other states they're trying to defend. Paxton's team will certainly make the argument that the Republican Senate establishment in D.C. is against him. And well, to some degree, he's right. Thune endorsed Cornyn. There's also the argument that worrying about the monetary resources doesn't address whether Paxton or Cornyn is better for the job. These are arguments that will probably work with a lot of the Republican base. Either way, we're days away from finding out whether multiple Senate races across the country have their dynamics shifted by the Republican primary in Texas.

Unknown 3:48

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.

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