Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Well, howdy there internet people, it's Belle again. So today we're going to talk about Trump getting another menu on Iran. Trump has been suggesting the US might get involved in the internal struggle in Iran for a while. And after the less than promised results of his Venezuela moves, Trump likely feels like he needs a foreign policy win.
Reporting has now come out that Trump has been given a menu of options for intervention in Iran. Now the demonstrations have swept the country.
Chapter 2: What options does Trump have for intervention in Iran?
The menu reportedly ranges from the mild to the extreme. Rumors say the options range from things as simple as economic sanctions to exotic options like cyber attacks to severe moves like strikes. Trump probably sees a chance to gain access to oil, and to maybe get even for Iran standing him down and embarrassing him after his hit on Soleimani.
The West in general, on the other hand, would love to see Iran's government fall. The government there embarrassed the entire West in 1979. No joke, there are even rumblings about trying to push the Shah's son forward as the new leader if the government falls. Now, let's get to the menu options. The sanctions and cyber attacks are relatively minor and seem unlikely, but not impossible choices.
When it comes to the military options, there are three real options. First is a hit against leadership in the hopes of toppling the current government. We'll come back to this one because it has a lot of risks. Second is simply using the demonstrations and this whole situation as a flimsy cover to carry out strikes against military targets the West wants to hit anyway.
The third option is actually attempting to help the dissidents in Iran.
Chapter 3: What are the potential consequences of U.S. military action in Iran?
We all need to hope he doesn't go this route. There's a lot of ways for it to go wrong. Imagine perfectly placed strikes on Iranian Security Service headquarters, 20 minutes after demonstrators seize the building. It's just an incredibly dynamic situation, and there are a lot of ways for the U.S. to make a bad situation worse.
Now, as far as the first option goes, and the idea of Trump using this to topple the government, it's not impossible. However, the question of what's next is really important here. We're not talking about a country with a relatively limited geopolitical footprint like Venezuela. We're talking about a regional power with heavy influence over a massive network of non-state actors.
A move against leadership that fails, or even one that succeeds, but doesn't provide for a clear and relatively clean transfer of power, will cause major issues.
Chapter 4: How might economic sanctions impact Iran's government?
This isn't something that can be done via social media or done without a complete plan. Iran has promised retaliation for any move. No matter which item on the menu Trump chooses, it's important for the American people to understand that it isn't about helping the demonstrators.
At best, it's about the normal pursuit of power in the games nations play. At worst, it'll be petty payback for something from Trump's first term. No matter the motive or the menu option, the chances for a U.S. intervention to lead to a mess are pretty high. Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.