Let's talk about Trump saying Iran will have ICBMs soon....

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Belle of the Ranch 4 min 3 chapters transcribed

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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

0:01

Well, howdy there, Internet people. It's Belle again. So today, we're going to talk about Trump saying Iran will have ICBMs soon. Trump recently claimed that Iran is, quote, working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America. This has prompted some questions about the accuracy of Trump's statements and whether or not it's justification for military action. Well, it's Trump, and my firm belief is that Trump is not a source.

What did Trump say about Iran's missile capabilities?

0:39

But we can take the claim apart into its various claims and fact-check them. There's two separate claims in Trump's quote. One is that Iran is actively working to build missiles, and two, that those missiles will soon reach the U.S. Depending on your definition of soon, this is pretty easy to fact check. The Defense Intelligence Agency put out an assessment under Trump on this exact topic that says, quote, Missile threats to the US homeland will expand in scale and sophistication in the coming decade. China and Russia are developing an array of novel delivery systems to exploit gaps in current US ballistic missile defenses. But traditional ballistic missiles, which are guided during powered flight and unguided during free flight, will remain the primary threat to the homeland.

1:43

North Korea has successfully tested ballistic missiles with sufficient range to reach the entire homeland. And Iran has space launch vehicles it could use to develop a militarily viable ICBM by 2035, should Tehran decide to pursue the capability. The majority of systems presented here have nuclear-capable variants. So this says they could have a militarily viable ICBM by 2035. That's not my definition of soon, but I guess that's a little subjective. So your call on that one. It also says, should Tehran decide to pursue the capability? That's a clear indication that they are not actively pursuing this capability. Now, if you don't believe this assessment, it's important to go ahead and stop Trump's Golden Dome initiative, because the assessment was put together to support his pet project.

What are the implications of Trump's claims about Iran's ICBMs?

2:51

It's important to understand, after Trump's initial strikes in Iran, he said Iran's nuclear program was set back basically decades. and refused to accept assessments saying that his strikes were minimally effective at best. The assessments that said the strikes only set back the program by months were produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency. That was just a few months ago. And the Trump administration is now saying Iran is probably a week away from having industrial bomb-making material. DIA was correct after the first strikes, despite Trump ranting how wrong they were. They were right and he was wrong. His claims that Iran will soon have ICBMs is in direct contradiction to the agency that was right while he was wrong.

3:50

Trump is leading the U.S. into another Mideast war with no defined strategic objectives, no exit plan, and doing it in direct contradiction to the available intelligence. At least the Bush administration had the courtesy to cook the intel a little. Trump's source appears to be, trust me, bro. Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.

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