We are officially out of time to prevent hitting 1.5 degrees. Yep - earlier last week, the World Meteorological Organisation said that we are going to hit 1.5 degrees of global heating by 2027, which is just two years away.So I thought we’d have an episode about what that really means - because what actually changes at 1.5 degrees? And what happens if we go beyond that?In this episode:Why scientists identified 1.5 degrees as a milestoneWhat a 1.5 degree increase will actually causeWhere we are today with global heatingThe damage to the oceans and natural world from global warmingWhy a 1.5 degree change is now baked inWhat terrifying things happen at 2 degreesThe places that could become uninhabitable in the next few decadesThe huge impact on cities and the losses we can expect over the next 80 yearsThe big impacts on crops, people, and health at 2 degreesThe economic impact we can expect from climate change over the next few decadesWhat happens at 2.7 degrees, which is expected by 2100Why I don’t think this will be our futureThe single most powerful thing you can do to prevent this dark futureEpisode Sources:World Meteorological Organization (WMO) – Global Annual-to-Decadal Climate Update 2024https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/global-temperatures-set-reach-new-records-next-five-yearsNASA Earth Observatory – “Earth Is Storing More Heat” (summary of Cheng et al. 2023 Earth-energy-imbalance work)https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152431/earth-is-storing-more-heatvon Schuckmann, K. et al. 2023 – “Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?” Earth System Science Datahttps://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023Cheng, L. et al. 2023 – “Record-setting ocean heat content and Earth system imbalance in 2023.” Advances in Atmospheric Scienceshttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2385-2Dessler, A. E. 2021 – “Water-vapour feedback.” Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Scienceshttps://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-082420-064024Copernicus Emergency Management Service – Rapid Mapping EMERG0325, Emilia-Romagna Floods (2023)https://rapidmapping.emergency.copernicus.eu/EMSR632Bureau of Meteorology (Australia) – State of the Climate 2022https://www.csiro.au/state-of-the-climateNIWA – Climate-change projections and extreme-rainfall trends for New Zealand (2024 update)https://niwa.co.nz/climate/research-projects/climate-change/extreme-weatherNOAA Coral Reef Watch – Global Coral Bleaching Event Status Update, April 2024https://coralreefwatch.noaa.govGatti, L. V. et al. 2021 – “Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change.” Nature 595:388–393https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03629-6Trathan, P. N. et al. 2023 – “Climate-driven population decline of emperor penguins.” Communications Earth & Environment 4:148https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00772-3Met Office (UK) – “One billion people face deadly heat stress at 2 °C warming.” Press release, Oct 2021https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/cop26-heat-stressIPCC – Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (2018), Chapter 3https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/IPCC – Sixth Assessment Report Synthesis (2023)https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/synthesis-report/University of New South Wales – West Antarctic ice-sheet collapse threshold study (2022)https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/science-tech/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-may-have-passed-point-no-returnProject Drawdown – “The Powerful Role of Household Actions in Solving Climate Change” (2023)https://drawdown.org/insights/the-powerful-role-of-household-actions-in-solving-climate-changeFAO – “Climate change could push 183 million more people into hunger by 2050.” News release, Sept 2021https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/climate-change-could-push-183-million-more-people-to-hunger/enWorld Food Programme – “What if the world warms 3 °C? Hunger and the climate crisis.” 2022Find the rest of the sources on our website and Substack!

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