Why AI Has No ROI with Paul Kedrosky

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Better Offline 57 min 4 speakers 4 chapters transcribed 3 months ago
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I told him. Whoa. We were filming Anchorman. Clearly, I was the idiot. Thank God he didn't listen to me, right?
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Listen to Saigon on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Greetings, I'm Ed Zitron and this is Better Offline.
Ed Zitron 2:10
Today, we are joined by the mighty economist, Paul Kudrowski. Paul, thank you for joining me. Hey, Ed. How's it going? It's going great. Everyone's deeply upset because this week and the last week, everyone has been saying, huh, does AI have a return on investment? And I've really been enjoying it because it's like watching the dinosaurs look up and see the meteor. They're just like, what do you mean? What do you mean this costs money? Yeah. I don't know if you've seen the GitHub Copilot stuff.
Paul Kedrosky 2:43
Yeah, I actually put out a thing on it yesterday.
Ed Zitron 2:46
Oh, sorry, Paul, terribly rude to me. You know me, I've got all sorts of crap on, so I haven't read it yet, but I'm excited to talk about this. I'm really excited.
Paul Kedrosky 2:57
It's really, and not only that, I mean, I'll sort of triangulate with three different things that touch on different aspects of this at the same time. One was obviously the GitHub Copilot study, which we can get into as deeply as you want. There was also a piece that came out in part from the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Yesterday or the day before, Jack Clark at Anthropic set it around. He's obviously one of the co-founders there. And it's called, Where is AI and GDP Statistics? And then, of course, there was the debacle, which I saw anonymous. Someone had anonymously disclosed that they had spent almost $500 million because they had uncapped token expenses. And discovered they'd sort of blown their credit cards.
Ed Zitron 3:44
I love that as well. Well, let's start with the GitHub thing. So for the uninitiated, GitHub Copilot, AI coding tool from Microsoft. A couple of weeks ago, I broke the story, of course, that they were moving their users from a premium request model to a token-based model. So think of it like this, listeners. Every time you use the cab service, you could just say, drive me from the Upper West Side to Red Hook. And that would be one drive, and you get a certain amount of drives a month. And then suddenly, the beginning of June, they turn to you and say, yeah, you've got to pay by the mile. And you suddenly realize you've been taking 95-mile trips. You've been asking to drive from New Jersey to Maryland, which I realize is further than 95 miles.

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