Paul Kedrosky
speaker
734 appearances
3 recordings
2 series
first heard Apr 2026
last heard 3 Jun
Paul Kedrosky’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 3 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 1.
Appearances
Yeah, like it's funny because almost a year ago, um, one of the things that first got me interested in this bananas topic was the it was uh AI CapEx specifically was, you know, blah blah, more than half of GDP growth, blah, blah, and so on, and which was just, you know, uh unprecedented and goes back to the railroads and everything else.
And so that was interesting and I started c talking about it and then I was surprised that no one else was sort of noticing this, the how consequential it had become.
And now, of course, that's become commonplace.
And so then I went on and I've been I've been paying attention to that.
And that hasn't varied very much from quarter to quarter over the last eight uh sort of, I don't know, 12 to 18 months.
It's been consistently between 30 and 70 percent of GDP growth.
And then it started to, it was interesting how it's almost in cancer terms sort of metastasized across the global economy and become even more consequential.
So the next example was about a month ago, where all of a sudden we had this.
Treasury market freak out in the tenure.
What one of the reasons driving what happened was this um sudden spike in the tenure and up over five percent now.
And what was increasing
And that's the two
Correct.
People required more compensation.
Yeah, sorry.
I go all I go all finance.
No, no, it's fine.
Yeah, yeah.
So so normally the treasury market, which is a multi-trillion dollar market, is so large and liquid that unless you are a sovereign, uh meaning another country issuing debt on the scale and with the same sort of security as the United States, um, you really it's really hard to influence it just through issuance, meaning that I'm just because I'm selling treasuries or I'm com or not treasuries, I'm selling comparable duration.
debt, it's really hard to have an impact on treasuries because it's such a big, large, and unusually liquid market.
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