Paul Kedrosky
speaker
1,259 appearances
4 recordings
2 series
first heard Apr 2026
last heard yesterday
Paul Kedrosky’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 4 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.
Appearances
So one of the things that one of the things that happened a month ago was that this thing we call AI capex and this staggering amount of issuance, much of which has a duration, meaning the length of time over which the bond is becomes due, the debt becomes due, is on the it the it varies from five to fifty
That becomes a good thing.
15 years, but let's call it a median duration of 10 years.
It began to seem like it was something unusual was going on in treasuries.
And as we sort of work through the math, and then this has now become fairly widely accepted, that AI CapEx issuance was actually had become so large that was beginning to bleed into the treasury market.
And so one of the reasons why we had this treasury market freakout is because of the unprecedented.
Amount of AI-related debt being issued.
And that in turn was causing a sell-off in treasuries.
As people said, you know what?
Given the choice, and this is a remarkable thing, given the choice between owning tenure treasuries backed by the full faith and credit of the United States, or owning 10-year debt backed by a hyperscaler's um pristine, and I have that in air quotes, uh
Credit rating, I'd rather I'd rather have the latter at the margin.
That just doesn't happen.
I mean, there's no reason why someone historically would do that because obviously sovereign debt is backed by the full faith and credit of the country.
And in particular, in the case of the United States, you can print your own currency.
So it's like you'd have no there's no prospect of default other than deflating it away.
So having that happen was an artifact of two things.
One was the crazy scale of issuance, which is now approaching in excess of a trillion dollars.
All right.
Jesus Christ.
Well
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