Blain’s Morning Porridge 20th, May 2026 - Defence Investment is evolving fast, and the winners are in Ukraine.“The war for which Generals prepare is always the last one – especially if they won it.”Investing in defence was a sadly neglected skillset for many years following the end of the Cold War. Defence primes became utility like seeking to preserve margins as real budgets declined on the peace-dividend. The War in Ukraine has highlighted many things, but critically that what the Primes are selling isn’t what’s going to win the next War. To invest in defence – you need insights into the future of the battlespace. Time to talk my own book again – about Defence and how to invest in it. And, yes, I will mention Spitfire Strategic Capital, where I am senior advisor to the managing partners. Most investors have now woken up to the reality it’s time to forget everything they thought was obvious about investing in Defence. If only it was as simple as buying swords because the trumpets are sounding. It’s not. The stock price gains European Defence Primes experienced after the Ukraine invasion went into reverse last year. That’s not because the threat is receding, but because of the old truism Generals (actually procurement departments) will always plan to fight the last war, and not the one that is coming! Last year’s stock market darling, Rheinmetall is down 40% from its top last October as that realisation has sunk in. Modern war and the weapons to fight it have fundamentally changed – we will not see the behemothic armoured clashes on the North German plains that NATO planned to fight during the Cold War.To invest in defence today you need to understand how the battlespace has evolved and expanded. That covers what happened following the fall of the Berlin Wall and, even more importantly, how warfighting has evolved over the last 4 years in Ukraine.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

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