Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 17th, 2026: Munich, AI and The Year of the Fire Horse.“We must build our hard power, for that is the currency of the age.”The future will be set not just by the defence and deterrence discussions last weekend in Munich, but by how global markets react to competition. New Chinese AI drops from DeepSeek and Qwen may challenge US hyperscalers and challenge expectations of global demand and markets. Happy Chinese Lunar New Year. Good luck and good fortune to all readers of the Porridge in The Year of the Fire Horse.History tells us things can get fruity in Fire Horse years – which occur every 60 years on the Chinese Zodiac. That’s a significant measure of time: a single 60-year Kondratieff long-term economic cycle encompasses the incredible economic change, tech evolution and growth we’ve seen since the 1960s. Periods of hegemonic challenge (which raise substantial conflict risks) typically occur every 100-120 years – the 2K cycle - which is pretty much where the timeline also is today as the USA and China butt against each other.China has become the most significant challenge to the USA’s era as the undisputed global hegemon and economic superpower. It happens at a time of increased political instability as Western economies struggle with inequalities and the rise of populism (including the challenges of Donald Trump’s second presidency), the consequence of underinvestment in deterrence, but also at a time of acute social change and external challenges (climate change, migration, et al), and all during a time when competition in global markets is reaching fever pitch.Hegemonic change doesn’t have to happen in terms of war and conflict but also occurs when previously dominant powers see their economic position challenged, and their industrial/business base surpassed. Tired economies define most end of empire scenarios – and explains why Great Britain gradually faded away after the First World War.Put all these random bits together; political ineffectiveness and polarisation, rising social grievances and tension arounds jobs, housing, and inequality (of income, opportunity and justice), and the dramatic competitive technology and economic shifts (which may increase social division by dispensing with jobs) that are occurring. Then sprinkle the risks of war on top of that… and it’s a not a pretty world we live in.Of course, it hasn’t helped that Trump’s vision for America has necessarily called for a reduction in the costs of its global responsibilities – hence the bust-up with Europe. It could have been done better and without the angst.What’s done is done…

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