Some Big themes for 2026?

Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 15th 2025: Some Big themes for 2026?“Santa Baby, one thing I forgot, a yacht and the deeds to a platinum mine…”The Chinese curse about living in “interesting times” is a boon to anyone fascinated by markets. There is no shortage of excitement coming our way next year – everything from conflict threats, renewed inflation, the return of QE, to the Space X IPO. But the thing is… we really don’t know….. we never have!Being a market commentator comes with a terrible cost – the numbing fear that strikes at 4 am that there is nothing to write about! Dull, boring, predictable markets might be great for bond investors – but they are the curse of the markets’ chattering classes who seek to describe what’s occurring.Thankfully…. There is no shortage of stuff to write about these days.There are so many different levels to markets – from the over-arching macro themes of geopolitics, economics, growth, commodities, liquidity and policy & politics, right down to the individual narratives driving individual stocks and bonds. Then there are the themes that weave across markets – like the “speculation on speculation” that drives the crypto markets, or the effects and consequences of how inflationary expectations will impact markets. And the capacity of people to fool themselves and others never ceases to surprise me.We may be living in an age where General Artificial Intelligence is nearly upon us, when Quantum Computing may shortly crack the biggest problems of health, wealth and prosperity, and Energy is key to everything, but fundamentally…. We are still a bunch of primates recently (in geological terms) out the trees, whose brains are programmed to fight or flight a pride of lions or the hiss of a snake. We obey emotions triggered by dopamine, serotonin, and hormone FOMO – the most powerful force in the financial markets: the Fear of Missing Out. We crave love and companionship, but worship the crass greed of success.We are not as clever as we think. On that basis… what to expect in 2026?

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