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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
News when you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Guy Johnson. And I'm Stephen Carroll.
And I'm Caroline Hepke.
The United States and Iran are considering a fresh proposal to end the war that has upended the global economy. Sources say Washington has presented a one-page memorandum of understanding that would gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the American blockade on Iranian ports. Iran is expected to respond via Pakistan within the next two days.
The offer caps a chaotic 48 hours as President Donald Trump searches for an exit. from a conflict that has driven up energy prices and dented his political standing.
Chapter 2: What fresh proposal is the US considering to end the Iran war?
Speaking yesterday, he offered a characteristically bullish assessment of progress.
So I think we won. Now it's only a question of, look, if we left right now Iran, it would take them 20 years to rebuild. You would call that... We're in good shape, right? Fantastic. We're in good shape.
Chapter 3: How is the US proposal expected to impact the Strait of Hormuz?
And now we're doing well. Now we have to get what we have to get. If we don't do that, we'll have to go a big step further. But with that being said, they want to make a deal.
Throughout the war, President Trump has repeatedly suggested that a deal is close, though none has materialised. Under the current plan, detailed negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme would come later, with nothing yet agreed. Iranian state media has signalled that parts of the US proposal remain unrealistic to the country's leadership.
Now, in terms of earnings news today, profits at Shell surged in the first quarter as the Iran war drove energy prices higher. Adjusted net income rose to $6.92 billion, beating estimates with refining margins also climbing due to soaring fuel costs. Events in the Middle East also boosted the oil majors trading business as desks took advantage of increased volatility.
However, the firm cut interest. Its quarterly share buyback to $3 billion, down from $3.5 billion, not well received by investors. Shares trading in London are down 2.3% for Shell.
The oil price is also a little lower, which may be a contributing factor to that. The Bank of England is privately starting to doubt Britain's official growth statistics. GDP data next week is likely to paint a rosy picture of the economy, but Bloomberg understands... BOE officials think the UK Statistics Agency is overplaying the numbers. James Wilcock has more.
The hope starts in May. Last year, first quarter GDP came in at 0.7%. That's a remarkably high figure for Britain's ailing economy, spawning articles about a UK economic turnaround. Then growth fell to practically zero in the third and fourth quarter, dashing those hopes.
The same pattern has repeated for the last three years, and now both the Bank of England and private forecasters are starting to doubt the data. One culprit may be seasonality. The suspicion is that the Office for National Statistics is struggling to adjust for shifts in spending habits after the pandemic.
The ONS told Bloomberg it will start publishing non-seasonally adjusted GDP figures next week. But it means the central bank goes into a potential oil supply shock, doubting if growth really is getting better. In London, James Woolcock, Bloomberg Radio.
China's new five-year plan is looking to build on industries where European companies have built their fortunes. The world's second largest economy wants to modernise across the automotive sector, chemicals and machinery, as well as frontier technologies like robotics, biomedicine and nuclear fusion. Bloomberg's Freddie Fulston has more.
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