Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Chapter 2: What trade developments occurred in 2025?
Does it seem likely that China will let it happen?
So there are two layers to the TikTok deal. One is the private sector layer, where the private parties are concluding a deal. And then there's a layer of government approvals between the United States and China. And so my conversations with the Chinese government over the past few months, as you mentioned, have covered a variety of issues. One of them has been TikTok.
Back at our discussions in Madrid, We came to an essential agreement that if the private parties came to agreement that the Chinese would approve it. So we expect approval by the government of China in alignment with that agreement we reached earlier this year.
We're hearing about not only this deal with respect to TikTok and some investors in the U.S., but also a review process to sell H200 chips. into China. And I'm just wondering, stepping back, if all of these are pieces of a bigger deal that will come to fruition in 2026 between the U.S. and China.
I would say with the H-200 export control issues, those really are standalone. That was not a negotiated outcome in the United States with respect to export controls. Those are not something that are really subject to negotiation. Those are national security and commercial decisions made by the federal government. So that's kind of standing on its own.
With respect to the rest of the China deal, right now we're trying to make sure that rare earths continue flowing from China. They've bought over 5 million metric tons of soybeans at this point, and we're trying to keep trade flowing between the two countries in a way that makes sense.
Do you expect a bigger deal other than just sort of steady reset kind of idea that we've talked about with respect to the U.S. and China? Do you expect something more comprehensive to be outlined next year?
It's a little hard to say at this point. Goal one is stability. For me, and everyone's heard me say this before, we need trade with China to be much more balanced. Our trade deficit with China has decreased by 25% this year alone under President Trump's policy, so that's going the right direction. I can foresee a situation in the first half of next year
where we come to some kind of agreement with China on exactly what we should be trading with each other, and even in what volumes. It's a little bit of managed trade, but it's the kind of thing that can be healthy and stable. Given the way that Chinese government runs its economy, it just doesn't mesh very well with the way we want to run our economy.
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Chapter 3: How do tariffs impact the U.S. economy?
tech companies. Where are some of those discussions?
So I just had a conversation yesterday with my counterpart in the European Commission yesterday to reinforce some of the strong concerns we're hearing from US stakeholders. US tech companies are the most competitive in the world. Europe, frankly, doesn't have those types of competitors.
If you talk to the Europeans, they'll say, that's why we have to regulate and have these protectionist measures against U.S. tech companies. Unfortunately, we see in the way that they've developed those measures, they're discriminatory. They only capture companies above a certain threshold of revenue globally or certain business models, and magically it only happens to capture U.S.
companies globally. They'll say that they're Chinese companies too, but we only see actions against American companies. So it's a problem. It's discriminatory in fact. You'll hear the Europeans say, well, it's fair, but it's discriminatory in fact and in intent. So I want to talk to these folks. I want to negotiate over it. They've been somewhat resistant to that.
But again, I had a great conversation yesterday with the European Trade Commissioner. And I think we just have to be able to talk about why they're doing this, why they're purporting to regulate American companies and their global business models.
Ambassador, coming into 2025, a lot of people were wondering who our allies and who our adversaries would be on trade. And we were talking about who traditionally have been U.S. allies and who haven't. Have you been surprised at who's been most difficult to deal with in 2025?
It has surprised a lot of people in the markets to see the likes of Europe be a more contentious discussion than other regions, even sometimes China.
That's because they haven't been trade negotiators. I have not been surprised at where it's been more challenging. Take India, for example, who's an important partner and a strategic partner in a lot of ways. We started negotiating with them early in the year, and we're still negotiating with them to try and find a good landing zone. During that time, we have other trade partners who have come in
started, proceeded with, and concluded trade negotiations with us, etc.
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Chapter 4: What role does affordability play in trade negotiations?
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Let's take a look at the sectors and how they perform. Tariffs putting pressure on yet another retail name.
We're also watching the second day of drop in Chinese stocks.
Get the latest stock news and data backed by reporting from Bloomberg's 3,000 journalists and analysts across the globe. Let's talk about some other decliners. You are seeing a little bit of a buy the dip mentality.
That's a stock that needs a stock split in a big way.
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