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Chapter 1: What happened in the Blue Jays vs. Astros game?
So close to being able to talk about an actual winning streak and being above 500. Close doesn't cut it. There's a catcher's interference. There is an unavailable closer. There is a Joey Loperfito Italian of the Year revenge home run. And there is some... Very woeful situational hitting, big spot hitting from the top of the Blue Jays lineup. They lose 9-7 in 11 innings.
It was also Shane Bieber's 2026 debut, which didn't go particularly well. You can obviously nitpick with that anytime you get down early, anytime there's back-to-back-to-back problems. home runs allowed and your starter doesn't get out of the fourth, maybe you are patient with Shane Bieber given it was his first start of the season and second year removed from Tommy John and things like that.
You may also just prefer to look at the position player side where they only managed to put up four until the extra innings portion of the game, or six rather, sorry, until the extra innings portion of the game. And I say only because there were a lot of opportunities to do more damage. They went... Stop me if you've heard this one before. 3 for 14 with runners in scoring position.
13 men left on base. And 9 runners left in scoring position. So that LOB number is a lot worse when you see that 9 of them were left standing there in scoring position. So this has been a recurring topic. And not a fun one. The Jays, yeah, nine is an unsightly number on the other side. And Bieber and Fisher and Loprafito and catcher's interference.
But the Blue Jays should have been able to win this one with the bats. A handful of spots where they didn't come up with the big hit. And so they'll try to win a series today. It's still important to keep winning these series. They talked about it on the broadcast last night that the Blue Jays are quietly 18-12 over the last 30 heading into last night.
And that's one of the best records in baseball. And no, there's not a big winning streak.
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Chapter 2: How did Shane Bieber perform in his return to the mound?
But if you just keep winning series, eventually that standings page will look more in your favor. So that's all they can really do today. As Trey Savage takes on the worst qualified starter in baseball, Mike Burrows. Naturally, that means he'll throw five shutouts. Worst qualified starter. We got a fun show today. Ben Clemens will join us a little later. We'll do our usual with Ben.
Sam Blum of The Athletic will join us. Talk a little Angels, talk a little labor stuff. We'll kind of whip around with Sam. He's transitioned from Angels reporter to national reporter. So more bird's eye view. And he had that player's poll about the lockout, if you saw that going around the other day. Johnny Prokos will join us.
Johnny Ipro of the Johnny Ipro Show will join us in the next segment. If you don't know who that is, you'll get to know him. His family has operated a hot dog stand right outside Rogers Center for like 35 plus years. He's also a big wrestling guy and has an event coming up. So we'll kick it around with him.
Chapter 3: What insights does Johnny Prokos share about his family's hotdog stand?
Huge, huge Jays fan. Right now, though, we're joined by Zach Warden of Sportsnet and MLB.com. Zach, how we doing, buddy?
Good morning, Blake. Doing well over here. Certainly interesting game last night. One of the longer ones I think that they've had this season.
For me personally, as someone who also had to then jump into the NBA draft at 8 o'clock, this game could have gone up to 759. And as long as it was a good one, I would have been happy with that. It was not a good one.
Before we get into the game-specific stuff, though, Zach, for anyone who doesn't know, in addition to doing stuff at Sportsnet, you've got a Blue Jays podcast, and then you chip in for MLB.com, and sometimes that's, you know, our pal Keegan's off, and you might spot 2D on Jays, but you'll also do the visiting team when they don't have someone on the road.
So you were covering this series for the Astros. For the audience who... doesn't know or for me who, you know, that might be a little weird bouncing between teams. What is that like when you swoop in and cover a series for the roadside instead of the home side?
Yeah, it's definitely a little bit of a different experience when you kind of jump in on a beat that you're not super familiar with the whole time. So, you know, certainly a good experience to jump in with the Astros folks as they cover the series and kind of try and pick things up on the fly there.
I think, you know, Joe Espada, for an example, has been great this series just about kind of, you know, getting to recognize who's covering the team and,
and stepping in there and you know i think it helps too when you have guys like joey loperfito in the other clubhouse that you're a little familiar with and you know nate pearson over there too so uh yeah definitely definitely a good good experience to to be able to kind of fly around and jump in i know this is kind of my first year doing it so still still getting used to it my first one was was on the red sox series right after they fired alex cora so not sure that there'll be uh anything a little bit more uh you know uh throw you in the deep end than that one
So that's it's a particularly interesting game, I think, to be on the roadside because you anytime you see a former Blue Jay on the opposing side, you know, we make the joke revenge game. Isaiah kind of falafel had one against Trey Savage, et cetera. And then Joey Loprafito is the hero and obviously short time in Toronto, but pretty well liked here.
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Chapter 4: What are the challenges Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is facing this season?
at roger center and how much kind of he he loves the stadium in general so um i i think for him that that's a pretty big moment as he's kind of come back from injury here and um is trying to kind of establish himself as more of a consistent presence for for this astros lineup that certainly needs their depth players to step up a little bit more often for them going forward this year
and he certainly got a piece of that one in the 11th off Braden Fisher. I do want to talk about some of the Blue Jays' pitching side, but to me, despite the Astros putting up nine runs and a whole bunch of home runs, this game should have been winnable on the position player side, and I'm going to read you a couple of numbers here about the top of the order, Zach.
The top three in the order, which yesterday was George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Jesus Sanchez, and then David Schneider as a defensive replacement, which is a...
funny sentence to say given where we were a couple years ago with his left field defense that group went three for 17 with one walk zero extra base hits wasn't a case where it was productive outs no sacrifices in the group and i used this that win probability added sometimes on the show what was the likelihood that your team would win before you're at bat what was the likelihood your team would win after that at bat and those three combined for minus 0.7 wins
Obviously, there's only one win available in a game and Okamoto was worth as close to one as he could. When you hear that, how I mean, how much is that the story of the game? And then how much do you find yourself zooming out to? Well, that's kind of the story of the offense season so far.
Yeah, no, 100%. I think you kind of look at last night and, you know, as many different storylines as there were in the game, I think if you're on the Blue Jays side, you're kicking yourself for the missed opportunities, especially the one that comes around in the 10th when you have the winning run on third with, you know, George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
coming up to hit and they swing at two sweepers away and not necessarily kind of the pitches that maybe you're looking to hit in those situations. So, yeah. I think as far as, you know, in the scope of the season, I think you look up at the scoreboard right now with the Blue Jays lineup and you just kind of see a ton of 700 OPS guys up and down the lineup.
And when you're looking for, you know, this this team that was so good in 2025, you know, the difference was you kind of had all those 700 guys up and down. And then you had, of course, George Springer and Vladimir Grove Jr. being eliminated. all-star caliber contributors.
I mean, obviously Guerrero had had kind of the slow start as well last year, but kind of as he got through the summer months, things obviously started to turn around for him.
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Chapter 5: How are MLB prospects evaluated differently today?
And he did have one hard hit ball in the... I think it was the second hung slider, but right to a fielder. And then if you're looking and seeing the hit and the stolen base, soft infield single and a free stolen base, basically. Also had the reach on a Nate Pearson error. And you talk about strike zone judgment. I mean, he's... Yeah, the chase rate is up and...
To his credit, Peter Lambert did a good job spotting around the edges of the zone against the Jays' top pitchers. But in that, I think it was the eighth inning when Pearson, right before the Pearson era, like a very clear Vlad should challenge this, and he didn't challenge it.
And when I think of locked in Vlad, I know this is the first year we've had the challenge system and we haven't seen locked in Vlad, but those are the kind of things that you would expect to see him on top of. His season line now, even adjusting for the declining league offensive environment, is the worst of his career. It's below his rookie year. So this is beyond a cold stretch at this point.
The other guy in that top three, Zach, and I'm moving on because we've talked a lot about Vlad over the couple of weeks, and one day Kevin Barker or Joe Siddle or someone's going to lose their mind being asked about diagnosing that swing. Jesus Sanchez was also in that top three, and there was a period there where
He was not quite floating the offense, but he was their hottest hitter for maybe two, three weeks there. And maybe when he's hitting that well, you can live with some of the defense, live with some of the base running, live with some of the strike zone judgment. That has turned around now that he is not particularly hot.
I know they don't have all the options in the world at the top of the lineup, but when you see what it looks like when... Sanchez is playing more to his floor than to his ceiling. What do you make of that? And big picture, is that a guy who has an everyday top of the lineup spot for this team if other guys get healthy?
Yeah, definitely a tough game when you kind of consider what happened on the other side for Houston and kind of that trade there.
Yeah, the little profito swap.
Yeah, exactly. I think you look at just kind of the way that he was swinging earlier when he was kind of having that success, and it wasn't necessarily kind of getting to all that power. It felt like he was kind of putting up a ton of singles, and I think it kind of fit with the offense and what they've kind of been doing. been doing for the most part.
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Chapter 6: What are players saying about the looming MLB lockout?
But for a guy kind of with his power, it's almost like, He leaves you wanting more a lot of the time because he's up there getting his hacks off. And, you know, this year his walk rate is down, dead down quite a bit as well from from kind of his career numbers.
So I think that right now, if he's not hitting homers and he's only hitting singles, then that isn't going to be enough to make up for what he's doing in the other aspects, aspects of the game. So I think kind of when you look at look at his role now. And certainly, obviously, what happened in Chicago and Kevin Gosman's start where you see him kind of make the or not make the play down the line.
And then the next day they run out their best defensive outfield alignment and then come up with with a nice comeback win that way.
I think as as Barger comes back and you kind of look at what Nathan Lucas and Miles are kind of doing in all facets of the game, I think that this could be a spot where they really do kind of try and lean into their strength there and try and play that little bit of a cleaner baseball game, especially defensively.
if they are going to end up being kind of this pitching front team and kind of leaning on the pitching and defense.
Yeah, and it's, you know, as we look ahead, the Addison Barger mystery injury is hard to put a timeline on. He's expected to begin a rehab assignment tomorrow, if all goes well. And paying $7 million and Joey Loperfito for Jesus Sanchez, you don't want to do a sunk cost mistake here, but it's hard to imagine him losing his roster spot.
I don't think it's hard to imagine him losing his playing time as an everyday guy as well. I almost said as Joey Loprafito comes back. As Addison Barger comes back, Joey Loprafito's not walking through that door. Okay, there were a couple positives on the hitting side at least.
Cosmo Okamoto continues to be, you know, his power is kind of like the one defining trait that the Blue Jays do have in the lineup right now. A couple hits, a couple walks yesterday, and he has the season-long clutch numbers don't necessarily show this, but it does feel like he has a knack for big moments as well.
How impressed have you been by Okamoto in this kind of, I guess we'll call it fourth phase because he started cold, figured it out, got cold again, seems to be right back where he needs to be these last couple of weeks.
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Chapter 7: What is the significance of bunting in modern baseball?
To tie the Okamoto power positive to the Sanchez not looking great in the top of the order negative, Dalton Varshow had a really good day yesterday. He's had a, in addition to the injuries, a bit of a weird season where he seems to have traded off some of that big power for, you know, he's walking a little bit more than he ever has before. He's getting on base a little bit more.
I don't know how much that comes out in the wash, you know, a big drop in strikeout rate and an increase in on base percentage in theory is pretty nice. But if it costs you the power, especially given how little the blue Jays hit for power outside of Okamoto, maybe that's not a good thing. But yesterday it looked like he could do both of those things. And maybe most impressive.
He home, he had big extra base hits off of all three different pitch types. I think he took a cutter, a change up and a slider for extra bases. Um, Just a blip here, but his OPS is back up to 775.
How much more sense does, at least until Barger's back, can the top of this order make if Varshow can get back to showing some of that extra base power and you can move a Sanchez, for example, down to a more appropriate spot?
Yeah, it's funny, like the way that the Blue Jays lineup has worked this year, because you really are confident. I mean, you know, confident as far as like lineup construction and track records go with putting Springer and Vlad at the top. And then you're just kind of trying to fit the puzzle pieces together below that with with who's going right at the right time. And I think Varshow, obviously.
You know, you kind of look at the way that he's performed this year. Obviously, you know, this team has kind of needed some slug and the Dalton Varshow of 2025 with with 20 homers and 71 games.
And it felt like he was homering, you know, almost every single game, whatever level he was at, whether it was with the Jays and the majors, whether it was kind of on his rehab track back in the minors, whether it was in spring training. And this year, as you said, you know, it's kind of been. a little bit of a different approach.
And, you know, you kind of wonder how much of that is leading into free agency and him trying to show that he can kind of be this more well-rounded hitter. But as for what the Blue Jays need, I think if he gives you games like yesterday where he's kind of able to do different things and kind of provide those big swings, I think, you know, he could really be a difference maker.
And I think you're kind of searching for a guy to consistently slot in behind that top group. And I think that Varsha has kind of been the leading candidate to be that guy for multiple years at this point, but just kind of hasn't been able to kind of find that consistent level to be at, whether it's from the power front, whether it's from the batting average and the OBP side.
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Chapter 8: What are the latest updates on the Blue Jays' roster and injuries?
I think that he could really be a good candidate just to kind of slide up there, especially when you're looking at guys like Sanchez and some of the other power options outside of Okamoto who aren't quite coming through right now.
Yeah, certainly. And Luis Arias can't do it all himself as much as that. It was a pretty electric debut. Also a debut yesterday, the 2026 debut of Shane Bieber. Didn't go particularly well. Back-to-back-to-back home runs in the fourth. He gets chased before finishing four innings.
It's a day where, not to answer the question for you, but the pitch design metric stuff, we're like, yeah, Bieber looked pretty good. And I'm like... I don't know that I agree. The edge rate, so how often he was putting his pitches on the edge of the zone, was the lowest we've really seen it from him.
So, you know, he didn't walk anyone, but if you are not putting pitches on the edges and not walking anyone, probably means you're putting them a little too much over the plate. Obviously, it was his first start of the season. When you look at that, how patient are you willing to be with how it looked? And were there any things that you think he can build on from that outing?
Yeah, so certainly I think the location, kind of like you mentioned, is kind of the big thing for him. You kind of see him missing over the plate a fair chunk, not getting a ton of swing and miss with his fastball. And I think when you kind of look at the game as the whole, I thought the Astros were pretty aggressive against him in the zone.
And that's not exactly a good combination with a guy who's putting it over the heart of the plate pretty often. And I think for the velocity, he averaged 91.9 with his fastball, a little bit down from where he's at last year, I think.
kind of with with the long layoff and uh kind of the the rush for him to get back to the majors and support this rotation i i think that you're willing to be patient especially for a guy with his track record and kind of what the blue jays are going to need from him i i think you're willing to be patient and obviously you know that they were able to come back and it's not like he put them in in a huge hole you know you don't love to kind of see those those foreign runs and
three and two thirds innings but uh they were able to kind of save him a little bit so i i think kind of going forward you know you you do want to see him work to the edges a little bit more like like you mentioned there with with the edge rate and everything like that um for a guy who's not going to be working up into you know 95 96 97 you know he can't can't afford to be leaving kind of the fastball over the middle of the plate and if he's able to to kind of get that fastball back to the corners and and work both sides of the plate you know i i think that there could be
You know, maybe not Cy Young, Shane Bieber coming back, certainly, but Shane Bieber more in line with the guy that we saw for the Blue Jays kind of late down the stretch last year and into the postseason.
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