Why do rare events feel far more common than they really are? In this episode of Circuit Breaker: Rewiring Your Decisions, we explore the availability error — the mental shortcut that makes us judge probability based on how easily examples come to mind. From dramatic news stories to personal memories that stick with us, we uncover how vivid or recent information can distort our perception of risk, influence our decisions, and quietly shape our fears and beliefs.Discover how to spot when your judgement is being guided by what’s most memorable — not what’s most accurate — and how to recalibrate your thinking when it matters most.Studies and links:Availability Heuristic and Decision Making | Simply Psychology Availability Heuristic In Psychology: Definition & ExamplesAvailability: A Heuristic for judging Frequency and Probability | Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman Tversky availability.pdf

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“What did the council decide on item 42?” — answered with the speaker and the moment.

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