PM 24 Sep 26: ASX reacts to higher unemployment
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Why did the ASX post its first loss of the week and what does it signal for investors?
Алисна продашн.
The first loss of the week for Aussie stocks as all eyes shift to unemployment.
And what does today's data mean for the RBA's rate decision next Tuesday? Good
afternoon, I'm Steve Daglian.
I'm Laura Besserati.
It's Thursday, the 24th of September. Welcome to the Comsec Market Update.
Well, Stevie, as you rightfully point out, it does look like we're gonna post our first loss of the entire week. So we've moved higher three days in a row. It should be mentioned that they were very small moves higher. So we were slightly higher over the course of the week so far, but today falling by around three-quarters of one percent as we head into the close. But we were down almost twice as much earlier on in the session. And it did look like it was actually going to be our worst day in around four months, but we have recovered from those levels. Yeah.
Yeah, we were down almost one point four percent in the the opening thirty minutes of trade.
How did the mixed August jobs report and rising unemployment affect market sentiment?
We had that week lead coming through from Wall Street as well, which was down by as much as one point one percent last night. So at the moment, it looks like we're on track for a fourth weekly decline, but we're only down a third of a percent this entire week. So, you know, it is still possible that if we get at least a a a small improvement tomorrow, that will snap this uh rough period for our market. market, but I think it's certainly clear that markets locally have been a little uncertain which way to head. Certainly not heading higher, I guess, um overall. They're just kind of hanging around this eighty seven hundred point marker at the moment, and we're nowhere near those record highs that we enjoyed last month.
Yeah, we've certainly been falling three straight weeks of declines uh so far in September. At the moment, on track for a four straight week. But uh as you pointed out, if we do get an improvement tomorrow, that could potentially change. But uh it does look like we're down a little over four percent over the course of September so far. So it looks like it's gonna be our second worst month of the entire year. And uh actually the second Second month that we've fallen, we've actually seen five straight months of improvements. We improved in January and February as well. So only two months of decline so far this year.
Crazy to think we're almost in the final quarter of uh of the calendar year as well. Things have gone by pretty quickly. Today though, what really made all the difference and a reason why we managed to essentially halve the declines was that update on jobs growth that we had an hour and a half or 90 minutes into the trading session today. Basically, this was for the month of August. It was mixed overall because we had, you know, twice as many jobs added as what the market was expecting.
What are the market’s expectations for the RBA’s upcoming rate decision?
in August, there were 39,500. All of those job gains were part-time positions, though. And because there are more people entering the workforce, the unemployment rate actually worsened from went from four and a half to four point six percent. And that's the highest it's been in about five years. So markets kind of have taken the day to to digest the news.
Yeah, and I think, you know, unemployment unexpectedly ticking higher to four point six percent is something that the market certainly paid close attention to. It was expected to remain steady at four and a half percent. And I think, you know, going off the back of comments from Michelle Bullock just a couple of days ago, she specifically spoke about the unemployment rate and said something like, you know, if they sit at four and a half to five percent, that could be a good thing for inflation. So the fact that unemployment did tick up, the market took that as a bit of a positive and we were able to narrow the losses that we were seeing earlier on in the day.
Yeah, as far as market pricing goes, it hasn't really changed that much for the immediate future. For so for next Tuesday, which is when the Reserve Bank is going to make its next interest rate decision, the market still thinks there's roughly a ninety percent chance that the RBA is probably going to lift rates, which would make it the fourth hike of twenty twenty six.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
Why did the ASX post its first loss of the week and what does it signal for investors?
0:02–1:00
2
How did the mixed August jobs report and rising unemployment affect market sentiment?
1:00–2:35
3
What are the market’s expectations for the RBA’s upcoming rate decision?
2:35–4:37
4
Which sectors led the market’s gains and why did energy stocks outperform?
4:37–6:29
5
Why did materials and financials drag the index lower despite other gains?
6:29–8:08
6
What company-specific news (Premier Invest, Sol Pats, NRW Holdings) drove the day’s top performers?
8:08–9:20
7
What upcoming US unemployment data and dividend announcements should investors watch?
9:20–9:25
Speakers
2 identifiedMore from CommSec Market Update
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AM 22 Sep 26: Wall Street rallies as oil prices plunge
PM 21 Sep 26: ASX treads water as rate hike looms