Chapter 1: What is the significance of the Duke vs. Michigan game?
All right, Duke fans, this is the preview we have been waiting for for a long, long time. DBR Bites, episode number 145. This will be the episode of the DBR where I may speak the least that I ever speak, except like in interview episodes, obviously, because we are looking ahead to the contest against the Michigan Wolverines.
And I, Jason Evans, know the least about Michigan of the three people on this podcast, for sure. I'm joined by... By my usual partner in crime, Donald Wine, and by the guy who is often replacing me when I'm on vacation and the such, Scott Rich.
And for those of you who do not know, who have not been paying attention for the past year or so, Donald and Scott, though they are both huge Duke fans, are only slightly less Michigan fans. They know the Wolverines. They have guys. So wait, Scott, I'm going to ask you first. How many Michigan games do you think you have seen this year?
I've seen every Michigan game that hasn't been directly competing with a Duke game or on the West Coast because the Big Ten is idiotic, just like the ACC.
Donald, how many Michigan games do you think you've seen?
I've seen them all. And the, and the great thing is, is obviously my family are big Michigan fans. And so my dad and I, when we talk, we talk first about Duke basketball and then we'll talk about Michigan sports. So he watches all the games, you know, so that, that allows me to watch and then be able to, you know, talk with about it.
Sometimes we're talking during the game, just about how, you know, as we'll talk about how strong a team Michigan is. This is, Jason, let's just say it.
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Chapter 2: How do Donald and Scott view Michigan's performance this season?
This is one of the biggest games. In a regular season, in a very long time. It's one versus two.
Wait, wait, wait. Not for Duke, I don't think. For Michigan, for sure.
Just in general, Jason, this is the most expensive ticket in Capital One Arena history right now.
It's final four level prices for this game.
Correct.
Absolutely. Actually, it's more expensive. My wife asked me if I should sell our tickets to go for the college fund. which we are not doing by the way, but there was a serious conversation about that.
I got the ticket information for the final four and the regional is going to be here. This ticket is more expensive than that. So yeah, this is big deal.
Scott, you could sell your ticket and go on vacation. I remember many years ago, I had tickets to a Final Four and my wife said, you know, we could sell the tickets and buy a big screen TV. This was back when big screen TVs were like a really big deal. And I paused.
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Chapter 3: What metrics highlight Michigan's strengths this year?
I was like, oh, wow. You know, like I could watch every game on it. I was like, and then I went, no, no, I'm going to the Final Four.
Yeah.
Sometimes you just have to break the little piggy bank open, so to speak.
All right, so as we embark on this, I am primarily taking the role of a guide, steering you guys along. Scott's going to kind of take my usual role. He's going to talk about the players. I'm going to talk a little bit about the metrics because the metrics are the metrics, you know, whether you've seen them play or not.
I'm sure you guys will have comments on them, but whether you've seen them play or not, you can discuss what the numbers say. I can do that anyway. But before we get to any of that, Donald, tell us a little bit about what Michigan has done this year in terms of their record and who they played and who they've beaten the absolute bejesus out of, because the answer is pretty much everybody.
Yes. Before Jason, I get started. I would be remiss if I didn't mention a couple of things that are happening on Saturday before the game. Of course, we have talked on the show, I think briefly about the fact that College Game Day will be at the Capital One Center on Saturday. I believe it starts at 10 o'clock. Ticketmaster has free tickets for that.
So you can go, I think, as of right now still and claim a free ticket to that. Also, there will be an open shoot around for both teams. I believe Duke's open shoot around will be immediately after college game days over around 11 o'clock. There is also a pregame for Duke fans at City Taphouse in Chinatown. I am one of the people who are helping to run that thing. So I will see everybody there.
It says on there to book a reservation. You don't need to book a reservation. You are able to still show up, have the time at the bar. I will be there probably around 3.30, 4 o'clock. So come out and have a good time.
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Chapter 4: How does Michigan's defense compare to Duke's offense?
And if you don't have tickets to the game, that will be where you can watch the game. But obviously for people who have tickets, come a little bit early, have a good time, and then let's go inside Capital One. I've said enough about before the game. Let's get to the game and talk about the Michigan Wolverines. 25-1 on the year, 15-1 in the Big Ten. They are first in the Big Ten.
We've done so many ACC games, I just put them in the ACC for a second. I'm sorry. But they have 17 top 100 wins. I'm not going to list them all, but they have 17 of them. That is a ton. They've beaten Ohio State twice. They've beaten Michigan State. They've beaten Nebraska. They've beaten Purdue just the other day.
And their only loss on the season was a 91-88 loss at home on January 10th to Wisconsin. Jason, you mentioned the fact that they were killing folks early in the season. And yes, they were. They are the first team, I believe in like 35 years, to have three straight 30-point wins over ranked opponents. And they did that three days in a row. They beat San Diego State by 40. They beat Auburn by 30.
And they beat Gonzaga by 40 in the Players' Era Championship. This is a really, really good team. They've scored over 100 points eight times. They're number one in everything. They're number one in every poll. They're number one in every computer. And most computers... whether it be Ken Palm, The Net, Evan Mia, rate this as a one versus two matchup.
Chapter 5: What player matchups should fans watch during the game?
There are only two teams in college basketball that have 10 quad one wins. They will both line up against each other on Saturday night here in D.C. Michigan, 10-0 in quad one games. Duke, 10-2 in quad one games. And Jason, as you get into the metrics... Michigan right now, a two-and-a-half-point favorite in this game, but this is really a toss-up.
I know Kim Palm has it by ā it was one point for basically ā they had Michigan by one point for basically all season until last night when they beat Purdue. Now it's two points. So this is basically the two best teams right now in college basketball going at it on the floor here in D.C., and it's going to be a monster.
All right, so let me quickly do a little bit of the metrics, and folks ā You're going to be scared when I... Scott's laughing too. When I go through these metrics, you're going to be like, what are we supposed to do against this team again? How are we supposed to succeed? As mentioned, Michigan is number one in Ken Palm.
But it's worth noting, they are approaching sort of really hallowed ground in terms of, I know Duke's number two, but there's a pretty good gap there between number one and number two because Michigan has been blowing teams out so badly. This Michigan club's, you know, overall like Ken Palm efficiency rating.
And it's worth noting from year to year, these things fluctuate a lot because, you know, the average team and all kinds of other stuff like that. So comparing teams across different eras is imperfect at best. That said, this Michigan team is like alongside last year's Duke team, the 1999 Duke team, the 2001 Duke team, and like the 2015 Kentucky team. as the best teams of the efficiency era.
And I said alongside, it's better than a couple of those teams. There is like, I'll go as good as Duke is this year. If somehow Michigan beats Duke in an impressive kind of way, They'll probably be the second best team in the history of the efficiency era. I mean, just wow. It's terrifying. So let me go through the numbers. As we said, they are number one.
They're the number four offense and the number one defense.
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Chapter 6: How do the teams' bench strengths impact the game?
Start with the offense. And the first thing you should know is this is a Michigan team that plays really fast. They want to get up and down the floor. They have the seventh fastest offense in all of college basketball. They are a really good shooting team. They hit 36% of their threes, which is not like a crazy huge number, but that's a good number.
But their two-point field goals, Michigan's hitting 62.6%, 62.6% of their twos, the second best number in all of college basketball. Duke, by the way, we're number four in two-point field goal percentage. They're even better than we are at hitting their two-pointers. And the reason why is because Michigan is just a great passing team. They assist on almost 62% of their field goals.
They have the 19th highest assist rate in all of college basketball. They're good, but not super great at getting to the free throw line. They are, though, a very good free throw shooting team. At 73, almost 74% of their free throws, it's hard to block their shots. They don't tend to turn the ball over very much. This is just nightmare fuel, all of it.
They also are a team that tends to take shots very close to the basket. They have the 19th best two-point field goal defense. I'm sorry, two point field goal offense distance is what I'm trying to say. How far they shoot from the basket. 19th closest in all of college basketball. Now get ready for the real nightmare fuel, which is on the defensive end.
They have the number one defense in all of college basketball. That's because it's almost impossible to get a two point shot against them. I mentioned that they hit 62 and a half percent of their twos. They allow their opponents to hit 42.8% of their two point field goals. They allow their opponents to hit 29% of their threes.
Michigan is somehow, and I don't even know how a team does this, they are somehow a top 10, almost a top five team in both two-point field goal defense and three-point field goal defense. How do you protect the rim and the three-point line at the same time?
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Chapter 7: What are the keys to victory for Duke against Michigan?
That should be impossible. You usually have to give up something to get something. On defense, Michigan gives up nothing. Oh my God. And the reason they are such a great team Two-point field goal defensive team is because this team blocks shots like nothing you've ever seen. Like we saw Syracuse. Syracuse is a good shot blocking team. This Michigan team makes them look like nothing.
Michigan has the fourth best shot blocking percentage in all of college basketball. And also, good luck getting to the basket against them. No team forces teams to shoot from further away than Michigan does. The number one best average two point field goal distance defense in all of college basketball.
And one other thing, remember I was talking about assists, how Michigan gets a bunch of assists. They're really good at making a good pass and getting a good assist. It is super hard to get a good assist against them. They have the 11th best assist rate defense.
in college basketball so you can't pass against them to get a bucket you're gonna have trouble getting off and shooting your three pointers because they allow teams to hit less than 30 and if you find your way into the lane they're probably going to block your shot this is like i said at the start is nightmare fuel michigan's metrics are unlike i mean anything that i've seen since last year's duke team
I've been waiting for weeks for you to see the two-point distance field goal because it is pretty nuts. You know, Adai Mara is almost single-handedly responsible for that. He's a 7'3 guy who was somehow stuck on the deep recesses of UCLA's bench for two years. You know, McCronin's the most grumpy coach besides Tom Izzo in the game. That might be why. Yeah. And then, of course, they surround him
with 6'9", Morris Johnson, who most Michigan fans expected to platoon at center with Adai Mara. No, no, no, he's playing power forward and is in himself a guy who switches one through five. And then Yaxo Lindenberg, the number one transfer in every transfer ranking that you could see in the offseason, came in expected to be the stretch four.
No, he's playing the three at 6'10", with a seven-foot-plus wingspan. He's a guy who's going to be a lottery pick forever.
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Chapter 8: What predictions do the hosts make for the game outcome?
40 exact reasons that you just mentioned underlying those metrics. He affects the game at the rim defensively, and he affects the game defensively on the perimeter with his length.
Hey, Scott, Scott, I'm going to stop you because you're getting into the players, dude. We're going to do that in a second. Donald, give me one more comment. Then we're going to take a quick break. And when we come back, we're going to hear from Scott about all the, all the players that are the source of this nightmare fuel.
There's one thing that I really want to emphasize is the fact, Jason, you mentioned their tempo is super, super fast. They are one of the fastest teams, as you mentioned. They only have four games under 70 possessions. So they're really playing go, go, go. And it's funny because John Shire has talked at Ned Nauseam about the fact that he wants our team to go a bit faster.
This is a game where pulling them down into the 60s might be the play as opposed to running with them into the 70s, high 70s or 80s.
Yeah, by the way, they had a game against USC where they got to 84 possessions. Like that's, God, they're moving up and down the floor a lot. All right, look, we're going to take a quick break. On the other side, as promised, Scott's going to tell us all about the players that we need to be on the lookout for for Michigan. It happens to be their entire roster. So we'll have that in just a moment.
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All right, back from the break here on the latest edition of the DBR podcast, DBR Bites. Scott Rich, it is your turn. You have watched virtually every Michigan game this year. Tell me who I need to worry about, and is the answer everyone?
Unfortunately, yes. So I think this makes sense to start with the player who Duke fans are going to be most familiar with, who is Elliot Cadot, a man who was the point guard for our hated rivals eight miles down the road for two years. If we remember, Elliot Cadot was a player who, every time we played him, the game plan was, make Elliot Cadot shoot.
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