Centre punch: Germany’s state-election shocker
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What are the latest German state‑election results and why are they a disaster for Chancellor Friedrich Merz?
The Economist. Oh. Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I'm Jason Palmer.
And I'm Rosie Blore.
Today on the show why African Stock Markets Are Having a Field Day and The Truth About Blue Light Before Bed.
But first
Fünfzehn Prozent.
Another set of results are in from elections to state parliaments in Germany, and it's not looking good for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his Christian Democratic Union. In the city-state of Berlin and in the northern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the CDU again got a kicking, this time from both ends of the political spectrum.
In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern it was the same story as in Saxony-Anhalt a couple of weeks ago. The far-right alternative for Germany or AFD party surged. But in Berlin, it was the populist left that made a surprising showing. All that puts Mr. Merz on thin ice, but he put on a brave face.
Aber genau deswegen können wir diese Entscheidungen jetzt nicht aufschließen. Die Reformen müssen kommen.
He says he'll press ahead with a package of reforms that he reckons can fix what ails Germany. But German voters don't seem quite so confident.
The Christian Democratic Union, the Conservative Party of Friedrich Mantz, the Chancellor, failed for the first time in its history to enter a state parliament in Mecklenburg For Pommen.
Tom Nuttle is our Berlin bureau chief.
They took four point nine percent of the vote just below the five percent that you need to make it in. And before these elections that was regarded as a kind of acid test for Merz who's in serious trouble in his party. If the CDU failed to make it into that parliament, then the sense was that things were going to get really, really hairy for Merz, and that is exactly what's happened.
And so who did win in Mecklenburg-Warpommern?
The populist right alternative for Germany came first with around thirty-eight percent of the vote. The social democrats who run the state pushed into a very close second spot with thirty-five percent of the vote, and they are likely to continue running the state because no other party will work with the AFD.
How did the AfD and Die Linke perform in Berlin and Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern, and what does that mean for the CDU?
Second problem for Merz and for the CDU is that in Berlin, the capital, which is currently run by a country. coalition led by the CDU. D Linka, a party of the hard left, had a fantastic result, and the chances are that they will now be able to form a coalition that doesn't have the CDU in it, so they will fall into opposition there as well.
And how did Mr Merz respond to all of that?
Well, it was interesting. About ten minutes after the exit polls in both states dropped at six PM, Merz came out and made a a short speech to a press corps in the Capitol. This is very unusual for a Chancellor to do this on the evening of a state election. And there was a little bit of speculation, you know, is he going to announce he's going to quit? There's been all sorts of speculation about this in recent days. But no, that's not what he did at all.
The agency in Mecklenburg Forpoman can we not shouldn't read. It is a
disaster. He said that the result in Mecklenburg Forpomer was a disaster for the CDU, and that was before we knew actually that it had fallen out of the state parliament. He said he was worried about what he called the authoritarian poison dripping into German politics.
These reformen are the authoritarian gift that with the faszination of autoritaire.
But he said to channel his inner Churchill essentially that he was going to keep buggering on. He was not going to quit as leader of the CDU, he was not going to quit as Chancellor, and crucially he was going to stick to the reform path of his coalition government in Germany. Few months ago, the coalition agreed to a quite a comprehensive set of pension, labour market, other economic reforms that now need to be approved in parliament. And he said that not only was the government going to stick to this path, but sticking to the path was the best way to tackle the populists of left and right.
But clearly with these results now in hand, that job is going to be harder.
Yeah, particularly now that the CDU's fallen out of the Parliament in Mecklenburg vor Pommern, I think the pressure on Merz is only going to increase.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What are the latest German state‑election results and why are they a disaster for Chancellor Friedrich Merz?
0:03–2:56
2
How did the AfD and Die Linke perform in Berlin and Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern, and what does that mean for the CDU?
2:56–5:54
3
What was Merz’s immediate reaction to the election night exit polls and why is it unusual for a chancellor?
5:54–8:57
4
How will the CDU’s loss of a state‑parliament seat affect the coalition’s reform agenda?
8:57–11:00
5
Why are African stock markets experiencing a boom and what role does Aliko Dangote play?
11:00–13:10
6
What are the key details of Dangote’s historic African IPO and its expected valuation?
13:10–15:39
7
How are fintech startups and retail investors reshaping African equity markets?
15:39–17:56
8
What does the latest science say about blue‑light exposure before bedtime and how should listeners adjust their screens?
17:56–20:50