Drone truth: Russia has the upper hand
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What is the current state of the war in Ukraine and why is it entering a tougher phase?
The Economist. Hello and welcome to the intelligence from the Economist. I'm Rosie Blore. Today on the show, the drinks business is in low spirits and remembering the great glorious dinum.
But first.
From drones to interceptors, innovation has been a hallmark of Ukraine's defense against Russia. But Russia is innovating too. The front line is barely budging, yet Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, is being struck day and night, as are civilian and economic targets across the country. It's a new phase of a war that has already stretched on for four and a half long years. And it's about to get tougher.
The war on Ukraine has shifted in recent weeks and months, and it's fair to say Ukraine faces a really hard winter.
Alex Turner is the economist defense editor.
We always say that every year that's said about Ukraine. But two things are different and they're connected. The first is that Russia, temporarily or otherwise, now has the upper hand in innovation and the scale of production of strike systems that can hit anywhere inside that country. And second, these technologies are bringing the war to more parts of the country and in ever more inventive ways.
You've just been on a trip to Kiev with a team from The Economist. Tell me what you saw.
Kyiv is a beautiful city. I first visited there in the wake of the sort of land grabs of the 2014 period. And you can imagine how much it's changed. It is a normal, functioning, bustling city. But what's very clear is that the rate of attack and the nature of attack is on the increase. The locals will tell you that. Both Kyiv and the entire country, you feel the war everywhere. everywhere in Ukraine now. The beginning of the war, there were front lines and cities were being struck and actually often it was energy sector outside cities. But anywhere you go in Ukraine now a petrol station is protected. It's got drone nets, it's got bastions around fuel tanks. Forty percent by some estimates of their retail infrastructure, their supply chain infrastructure has been hit.
So you pass warehouses which have been smashed, warehouses of no feasible military value. commuter trains are being hit. And it's night and day is the other thing. You know, a lot of the time earlier in the war these attacks would come in the dead of night. Now they're hitting them more often because there's more weapons to strike. And the Economist team, we experienced this at an unexpected time and place.
So what happened?
In a street waiting to meet some contacts, and you kind of hear the buzz. The old Shaheed drones have a two-stroke petrol ended, kind of sounds like a flying scooter.
How has Russia gained a technical and production advantage with Shahed drones and missiles?
So it's an unusual sound. So you crane your eyes skyward and then and you catch this very distinctive triangular shape beetling along. And then you need to watch it. A good parallel of the V1 doodle bug bombs that rained down on London. Second World War. When they used to cut out, you knew there was a problem. And it's a shaheed when it turns and dives is a problem. And so obviously, pretty briskly, we took cover and one of them was shot down and one of them was impacted. Most Ukrainians nearby were relatively unfazed by this, but it's an example of these things appear largely without very much warning and at any time of the day or night. And that's wearing for a country.
As you say, the war has been going on for a long time, so what exactly is it that's changed just in the last few weeks?
Well, the first thing to say is the Russians have made technical gains. And the first of these is with these Shahead drones, which is yeah, up till now have been petrol driven, little engine, and now they're jet powered. And that means they can fly higher and faster. And the Russians have been increasing the production rates. There's by some measures we think the production target is twenty four thousand of these things this year. Ukrainian intelligence official said of that. Maybe two thousand eight hundred have been fielded. Now so far only about one thousand have struck Ukraine. So you can see this is gonna get worse. These things are coming in greater numbers and harder to hit.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the current state of the war in Ukraine and why is it entering a tougher phase?
0:03–3:20
2
How has Russia gained a technical and production advantage with Shahed drones and missiles?
3:20–6:08
3
What changes are happening to Shahed drones that make them harder to intercept?
6:08–9:11
4
How is Ukraine’s elite ‘Nemesis’ drone battalion operating behind the front line?
9:11–12:51
5
What financial and technical support does Ukraine need to keep its drone programme alive?
12:51–15:37
6
Why are traditional alcohol companies struggling and how are they trying to reinvent themselves?
15:37–18:06
7
Are non‑alcoholic drinks and ready‑to‑drink cocktails actually reshaping the beverage market?
18:06–22:33
8
What was Gloria Steinem’s impact on feminism and why is her legacy still relevant today?
22:33–25:37