Dividends to dominate earnings; house price slump; Mag 7 tech stocks find friends
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Welcome to Fear and Greed, business news you can use today.
How will CGT changes make dividends dominate the upcoming earnings season?
Earnings season kicks off with dividends set to dominate as a result of capital gains tax changes. The housing downturn in Sydney and Melbourne has spread to the rest of the country and investors warm again, for now, to the magnificent seven tech stocks on Wall Street. Plus, Telstra switches on satellite access to users in the bush. And local wine exports fall to their lowest level in more than 20 years. It is Monday, the 3rd of August, 2026. I'm Michael Thompson, and good morning, Sean Aylmer. Good morning, Michael. Sean, the main story this morning, earnings season kicks off this week. Get excited. Oh, yeah.
Which sectors are likely to drive or drag profit growth this earnings season?
Absolutely.
It's going to be a test of domestic resilience, really, in the face of higher interest rates and a fair whack of geopolitical uncertainty. While some sectors, notably resources, are expected to report meaningful growth, others, such as financials and consumer stocks, may not. Now, in the past two reporting seasons, August last year and February this year, there has been sharp, extreme volatility in share prices immediately after results. And analysts have said that disappointing results this time could well trigger sell-offs once again.
Now, there are a few X factors this time around apart from interest rates. What's going on in the Middle East with what's going on with oil prices? Another is the change to capital gains tax rules. There's already a shift in investor focus from capital growth to dividend stocks. Dividend guidance this year will take on a whole new importance. Another X factor.
Which companies kick off reporting and why are dividend guides more important now?
What's happening in AI? There's surging capital spending in data centers as well as public and energy infrastructure. Now in share price terms, the major miners performed really strongly last financial year. Investors will expect profits to match expectations. If they don't, watch out. The underperformers last year, healthcare and tech stocks, they've probably got a little less riding on it in share price terms, but if they can outperform, well, their share prices might just take off.
Yeah. Now, Rio Tinto released its half-year results last week with a big dividend. Rio always kicks things off. You know that things are underway once Rio gets in there. Then this week, we've got AMP and Beach Energy. Next week, though, is when things really fire up with dozens of companies reporting, including Commonwealth Bank and Telstra. both of which are dividend stocks for many investors. Expectations are pretty high, with market forecasts suggesting that earnings will rise in double digits.
Has the Sydney and Melbourne housing downturn spread nationwide and what are the numbers?
That comes after a run of lower profits. Maybe I'm asking you the impossible, but will the profit pickup be broad-based?
You are. That's a big question, that one. Good luck. Look, I mean, the energy companies, mining companies should outline strong results, but they could well mask weakness elsewhere as companies fight the cost of living crisis and higher oil prices. Without the resources and financials, profit growth might be negligible, according to many analysts. Last week, Maya came out, said its revenue was flat. Analysts fear other retailers will say the same thing just at a time when costs are rising because of the oil crisis. So flat revenue, high costs, that means your profit margins are being squeezed. Investors don't like that. In the tech sector, investors will be watching closely to see whether AI is eating into the business models of those software as a service companies in healthcare and particularly CSL.
Investors want to see some resilience and maybe rebound of earnings. Anyway, all pretty much kicks off this week. Very exciting to be a journalist in earnings season, Michael.
Yeah, and it goes without saying that the place to hear all of it is, well, it's here on Fear and Greed. There we go. Just a little plug for us. But chances are, if you're already listening to us, then you may know that. Yeah, indeed. Anyway, spread the word, though. That'd be great. Sean, the downturn in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:06–0:09
2
How will CGT changes make dividends dominate the upcoming earnings season?
0:09–0:46
3
Which sectors are likely to drive or drag profit growth this earnings season?
0:46–1:45
4
Which companies kick off reporting and why are dividend guides more important now?
1:45–2:47
5
Has the Sydney and Melbourne housing downturn spread nationwide and what are the numbers?
2:47–5:16
6
What factors are causing higher‑value homes to lose the most and are regional markets cooling?
5:16–7:05
7
Why are Magnificent 7 tech stocks rallying again and how is AI influencing their results?
7:05–10:09
8
What does Telstra’s Starlink satellite rollout provide and what are its current limitations?
10:09–15:46
Speakers
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