Unemployment rises; football World Cup hits earnings; breakthrough melanoma treatment
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Why is Australia’s unemployment rate rising and what does it mean for the economy?
Welcome to Fear and Greed, Business News You Can News. Today unemployment rises as bond markets pair back the chance of a rate hike. The Aussie dollar pushes above 71 US cents, and the federal parliament passes legislation that will force big tech companies to pay hundreds of millions of dollars to local media organizations. Plus, the Football World Cup both helps and hurts ASX-listed companies and a promising New treatment for melanoma. It is Friday, the 21st of August, 2026. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer. Good morning, Michael. The main story this morning, Sean, the unemployment rate rose to 4.5% last month, up from 4.4%, the highest level now in five years, on the back of a loss of nearly 16,000 jobs.
Other measures of employment also fell back as fears grow that the three rate hikes that we've had earlier in the year are now starting to hurt the employment market. The numbers five. Follow a a bit of a bumper June reading, really, and a pullback was somewhat expected. But yesterday's figures from the Australian Bureau of Stats, well they were weaker than most economists had forecast.
Sure were. There was a fall in the participation rate, the number of people looking for a job, and the number of hours worked in all jobs, and an increase in the underemployment rate, which measures the share of people with jobs who would actually like to work more. The trend is definitely your friend in employment figures, Michael. And over the last six months, jobs growth has averaged just 18,000 per month. Still growing? But not by much. The Reserve Bank and Treasury are a little at odds over unemployment.
How are bond markets reacting to the latest Australian rate‑hike expectations?
The central bank has forecast a rising rate to 4.8% in about 20 months' time. Treasury thinks it will peak at around 4.5%. Given we're at 4.5% already, I suspect both forecasts now look at risk of being overly.
Optimistic. Sean, away from the official data, uh a lot of consumer focused companies reporting earnings uh like um Maya, Treasury Wine Estates, Temple and Webster, JB HiFi, Endeavour is another one. They've all warned of consumer spending weakness. And the big four banks have lifted the amount of money they set aside for bad loans, fearing a consumer slowdown. Such a slowdown would ultimately feed through to the employment market. Do you think the Reserve Bank would be happy to hear the commentary from all of those different companies, given it is trying to slow the economy?
Well, I don't think they'd be unhappy. I'm sure they're not happy if people are losing jobs, but they wouldn't be unhappy about it, I think. There. Hmm. No, I don't think so. On I mean, I I think that would be the case. On Wednesday, the deputy governor of the Reserve Bank, Andrew Hauser, said the central bank wanted to slow consumption and employment growth. If it doesn't happen, interest rates will have to rise again. So I think they will be okay with the earnings season results, and particularly uh the commentary around a slowdown in spending in June and July this year.
What’s driving the Aussie dollar above 71 US cents and how will it affect exporters?
Bond markets are still pricing in another interest rate. hike this year, but they've really pushed it back to later in the year. Yesterday's figures support the argument that the Reserve Bank can just sit on the sidelines for a couple of months and see how the economy evolves before doing anything really on interest rates.
Okay. Turning to markets now, Sean, the Aussie dollar has been on a run. It is trading above seventy one US cents, which is closer to the long run average now for the currency against the greenback.
Yes, the Aussie's finding plenty of friends at the moment. The Reserve Bank's tightening bias is helping. So too, the performance of the big miners, you know, if you want to buy iron ore or copper, ultimately you have to find some Australian dollars to pay for it. So that's how it works. Also, debt levels in the US, the US in particular, is supporting the local dollar. It gets a bit technical that one. But when you have big economies with huge amounts of debt, people start getting Weary of their currencies.
Uh oil prices have been trending up as the stalemate in the Strait of Hamoors continues.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
Why is Australia’s unemployment rate rising and what does it mean for the economy?
0:06–1:50
2
How are bond markets reacting to the latest Australian rate‑hike expectations?
1:50–3:13
3
What’s driving the Aussie dollar above 71 US cents and how will it affect exporters?
3:13–6:49
4
What does the new 2.5% levy on big‑tech advertising revenue mean for local media?
6:49–12:23
5
How did the Football World Cup boost Super Retail Group’s sales and share price?
12:23–14:49
6
Why did Brambles need 1.3 million extra pallets during the World Cup surge?
14:49–17:26
Speakers
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