Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
A podcast from Aftenposten. The entire country could be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night. The president's latest demands on Iran and his language are drawing scrutiny and criticism.
Today, he doubled down on his profanity-filled social media posts, writing the following. Open the effing straight, you crazy bastards, or you'll be in a living hell. Just watch. Praise be to Allah.
This week, the U.S. President of Iran threatened with exasperation if they didn't open the Hormuz-street from night to Wednesday.
A new post that we've had on truth social by Donald Trump.
Chapter 2: What led to Trump's threats against Iran?
He says the whole of civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. At the same time, he kept the door open for... Let's continue to read this in full. He says, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen. Who knows? We will find out tonight.
But just before the deadline came, the news came. A middle-aged weapon villa.
As a president of truth this morning, a big day for world peace. A capital V military victory.
You're listening to Forklart from Aftenposten. And now Foreign Minister John Hulken will try to explain what has happened in the war between the USA, Israel and Iran. Not least, who was it that actually won? It's Thursday, April 9th, and my name is Helle Årnes. John, how unusual is it that the US president trusts a whole civilization with exclusion?
I don't know if we've ever seen anything like this before. It's completely unique, and it's perhaps a bit devastating for Trump himself, because he has come up with new threats, and in the end he ends up on a level that is so far-fetched that it takes the credibility away from the threats he comes up with. So what should his enemies think then?
Once in a while, we have seen that Trump has come up with violent threats and quite clear deadlines, which Iran, apparently, has not cared so much about at all. And every time, Trump has come up with solutions, and at the same time, he has increased the effort, that is, increased the threats even more.
It is, in a way, quite typical of Trump, because he walks very hard, and then he adapts after a while. And this time, he pulled himself together again, fortunately, we can say.
First of all, I have to say that this episode was filmed on Wednesday morning. And now on Friday, the negotiations begin.
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Chapter 3: How did Trump's social media posts escalate tensions?
They take place in Pakistan, which has been a kind of diplomatic bridge on the way to arms sales. Iran came with a list of 10 demands, and Trump answered that it was a good starting point. But there are absolutely no possible cuts in the sea.
Iran's plan requires, among other things, that Iran still has control over the Hormuz Strait, something that is totally out of date for the Arab countries that transport their oil through the Strait, and which is the US ally in the region. Iran will continue to enrich uranium, they will have war compensation, and they will end sanctions, to name a few.
And we can perhaps say that Iran does the same as Trump. They are going very hard, because there is a lot to change when the parties meet in Islamabad on Friday.
Men, Jon, hvordan er det egentlig med Hormuz-stredet akkurat nå? Er det åpnet igjen?
Det er faktisk ganske uklart. Sånn som USA ser det, så er det det. Men det er ikke Irans oppfatning. De mener at de skal ha penger for å la fiender slippe igjennom. Stredet har jo ikke vært stengt. Iran har hele tiden voktet over stredet, kan du si. Så de har latt sine venner kjøre igjennom, og de har også fraktet sin egen olja. This previous weapon will, is it a victory for Iran?
It is difficult to say that there are any victories here, but I want to say that Iran, they experience at least themselves that they are a kind of victory here. They believe that the US and Israel went to war, among other things, to overthrow the press regime and to eliminate the atomic program. And that's not something that has happened.
On the other hand, Iran has held the international community partly captured by the fact that they have managed to block the Hormuz community for their enemies.
They managed to take out Ayatollah.
They took out Ali Khamenei already the first day. And that has also taken out many other military and political leaders. So in that way, it has weakened Iran strongly. But the regime is still there. There is nothing that shows that it is... Trump claimed that this is a victory for the US. Yes, not only that. It's a 100% victory, actually.
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Chapter 4: What were the immediate outcomes of the U.S.-Iran conflict?
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The US and Israel have attacked Iran for almost six weeks. What damage has this led to?
It's quite a lot of destruction in many countries, actually. Harbours, oil refineries and gas production centers have suffered great damage in Iran, but also in several Arab neighbouring countries. Iran has leapt by shooting at its neighbouring countries.
Al Jazeera has had an updated list all the time over the deaths in the war, and it showed, when I checked last, 2076 deaths in Iran, 26 in Israel. 13 American soldiers and 28 were killed in the Gulf states. But what we have to add here, and to get some perspective on it, is that 1,500 were killed in the Israeli attack in Lebanon, according to the health ministry there.
The population in Iran has been without internet and communication. What do we know about what's happening inside Iran, and how has the war affected the regime there?
We know very little about what is happening in Iran, precisely because there are such bad connections, and because the regime does everything it can to prevent news from coming out that can seem negative to them, and that can seem to destroy the morale of the country. But we know that Aftenposten has been in contact with people in Iran, and talked to people on the phone as few times as possible.
And they have, of course, different versions. People don't mean the same.
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Chapter 5: How is Trump's credibility affected by his threats?
Some supported the regime. Others really hoped for a regime change. But nevertheless, the regime has not shown any clear weaknesses. It has, in a way, been relatively stable all the time. And that can have to do with the fact that the Iranian security apparatus is organized with a fairly decentralized structure, which means that the regime can continue even if important people fall from it.
But even though many in the Iranian leadership are killed, Iran is a very large country with 92 million people. How is the opposition in Iran doing?
It's a very difficult question, because we know very little about it. We know that the Iranian regime has done everything it can to imprison and kill everyone who has shown resistance to the regime throughout all years. So many have managed to flee the country, but the different exile groups seem very divided, and we know very little about the opposition internally to Iran.
You were saying that the war also affects many other countries in the region. What will happen in the region in the future, what do you think?
I think that USA's friends in the region feel quite weakened by Trump. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, they had nothing to do with the start of this war, but they have still been very strong. One thing is the export of oil and gas, but it is also about the image that these countries have wanted to show as tourist destinations. And that is very strongly weakened now.
I think it can take time to build up again.
Og hele verden er jo egentlig blitt rammet av at Hormuzstredet ble stengt. Oljeprisen skjøt blant annet i været. Og nå hyller Trump Kina. Hva har Kina med dette å gjøre?
China is good friends with Iran. They have developed technology and traded with each other for several years. According to Trump, China will have played an important role in making sure that Iran will be involved in the negotiations. So we can say that China has been one of several right-wingers to get to where we are now.
This war has so far cost a lot, but what has the US achieved?
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