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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK. This is an extra edition of the Global News Podcast from the BBC World Service.
Hello, I'm Oliver Conway with the latest on the US-Israeli war on Iran. We're recording this at 13 hours GMT. An Iranian news agency says a US attack on its oil-exporting island failed to achieve its goals.
Chapter 2: What happened during the US attack on Kharg Island?
President Trump says military targets on Hague were obliterated. In a rare rebuke to its ally, the Palestinian militant group Hamas has called on Iran to stop its attacks on neighbouring countries. And we look at the environmental impact of the war. How long will the US-Israeli war on Iran continue?
Donald Trump said on Friday he didn't think it would last long, but added it will end, quote, when I feel it in my bones.
Chapter 3: How did President Trump respond to the attack on Iran?
The US is sending additional warships and marines to the region, suggesting the possibility of American boots on the ground in the near future. However, President Trump is under pressure at home over the war's impact on oil prices.
On Friday, he said the US had obliterated military targets on the Iranian oil hub of Haag and threatened to target the oil infrastructure there if Iran stopped ships going through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by saying any attacks on its energy facilities would lead to strikes on US oil interests in the region. So, what are we to make of it all?
Our security correspondent Frank Gardner is in the Saudi capital, Riyadh.
If you strip away the kind of bombast from this, because there's a certain degree of chest beating by both sides here. If you do this, I'll do that. Strip that away. And this is quite a serious escalation because Kharj Island, it's been described as the beating heart of Iran's oil industry.
Chapter 4: What is the significance of Kharg Island for Iran's oil industry?
It's 90% of its oil exports go out through that terminal. It's a small island in the north of the Gulf. It featured quite prominently in the eight-year Iran-Iraq war. It's known as the Tanker War of the 1980s. because the Iraqi Air Force would bomb it several times, trying to hurt Iran's economy.
So there's no question that taking out the military who guard it has been a blow to Iran, and it would have been an even bigger blow if it knocked out its actual oil facilities as well. It's slightly self-defeating for the Americans, this, because... If you knock out Haraj Island altogether, then that takes between one to two million barrels per day off the oil markets.
And the price is already above $100 a barrel. Great for Russia.
Chapter 5: What are the environmental impacts of the conflict in Iran?
The money is flowing into Moscow's coffers. Not great for the US consumer or for Donald Trump's MAGA base. So there are risks in this. I'm not sure what we're to make of this
flotilla this arg this amphibious ready group that he's ordered to sail from the sea of japan westwards to the gulf containing 2 000 plus u.s marines and several thousand more sailors because if he plans to invade and occupy harge island that is going to bog the u.s down for an indefinite amount of time this is exactly what trump was voted into office not to do
Yeah, because for a start, it'll take a couple of weeks to get there. President Trump has recently said, I don't think it's going to be long until this is over. But sending troops suggests it's going to be a longer campaign.
It does. And, you know, there is a parallel here.
Chapter 6: How are Gulf states responding to the threat of Iranian missiles?
Kind of if we pull out and look at all of this objectively and historically, there is a parallel with the Tony Blair years where there were a couple of very quick, successful in and out campaigns. campaigns. Sierra Leone in 1999 and Kosovo took a bit longer, but Both were successful military interventions without too many repercussions. Then came Afghanistan and then came Iraq.
In both cases, Britain getting bogged down and America bogged down for years and years. And in the case of Donald Trump's administration, you had the quick one and done, as they called it in the States, intervention in Venezuela. Slightly mixed outcome, but militarily it was very successful. And in intelligence terms, it was a huge success.
and they've been able to interdict tankers and seize Russian ghost fleet tankers and so on.
Chapter 7: What role does Hamas play in the current tensions?
But this is different. This is a miscalculation, I think, because the Gulf Arab states where I'm speaking to you from, they all said, pretty much all said, don't do this. You know, this is going to hurt everybody, especially us. You know, you might win this militarily, but we're going to pay the consequences. And guess what? That's exactly what's happening. And it's driving up oil prices.
It's ruining the tourism industry in this part of the world, which in a country, in a place like Dubai, is hugely important. But the biggest miscalculation is the US seems to think that it would be able to intimidate Iran. to come to the negotiating table and comply with US demands.
Chapter 8: What are the implications of US military actions for oil prices?
And that bit isn't working. The Iranians, yes, they've been absolutely battered, the Iranian regime. They've lost a huge number of commanders, but they haven't collapsed yet. They've only got to survive to win this.
And currently they are surviving because they are still sending these drones into US and allied targets in the region.
Yeah, I mean, I spent part of yesterday out in the desert visiting a previously undisclosed British Army unit. Ben Wallace, the previous UK Defence Secretary, the Minister for Defence, sent this artillery air defence unit from Britain to Saudi Arabia, what, nearly four years ago now, and they've been practising to shoot down drones. They've got these things called Stormer armoured vehicles.
their short range air defence, their job is to help defend Saudi critical national infrastructure, which is vulnerable to attack. I mean, you know, if you look at, say, oil or petrochemical, these are huge, great big targets, big facilities. And I don't know if you remember, seven years ago, there was
a devastating attack by missiles and drones on Saudi Aramco's petrochemical facilities at places called Abqaiq and Kharais in eastern Saudi. And I went to visit the aftermath of that, and it knocked half of Saudi's oil exports off the market for several days. And that was a bit of a wake-up call to the Saudis as to just how vulnerable they are to Iranian drones.
Seven years on, drones have become a part of modern warfare, an integral part of it. And the Iranians, even if you knock out all their ballistic missiles, they've got an almost inexhaustible supply of these nasty Shaheed drones. They're about, I don't know, two and a half meters long. They pack 90 kilograms of high explosive.
And they can slam into high-rise buildings, into embassies, into office blocks, into hotels. You know, they're not huge, but they can ruin your entire day. So it's what Ukrainians have been putting up with for four years. You know, they all know too much about these. I mean, it was the equivalent of the doodle bugs that Londoners had to endure after the Blitz.
that these things would come over sent by Germany. And there are so many of them that some of them get through. They can shoot down most of them, but some of them get through and they wreak a lot of damage. And Iran's got a lot of these. You can launch them from the back of a truck, from a cave, from pretty much anywhere, and it can reproduce up to 500 of these underground every month.
So Iran is all about playing the long game because they know that Donald Trump hasn't got the patience to do that. He wants this to be one and done, declare victory, job done, mission accomplished, off we go. But Iran's still going to be there, and so is the Islamic Republic at this rate.
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