Election Edition: Can Dems Retake Congress – or Will the Trump Effect Help the GOP Defy History?
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What historical patterns shape expectations for the 2026 midterm elections?
There's a number of voters that President Trump brought into the party, and he wants to make
sure show up at the polls. For Democrats, you know, we understand what's at stake, and part of that is absolutely pushing back against Donald Trump.
I'm Garrett Haake, Chief White House Correspondent at NBC News, and this is Here's the Scoop, Election Edition. Every Saturday, from now until the midterms, I'm going to be talking with the smartest voices to discuss the top issues, the places, and the players that could ultimately decide control in Washington. Right now, Republicans hold the House, they hold the Senate and the White House. And historically, the party in power has suffered major losses in midterm elections. In 1994, there was the Republican Revolution during the Clinton administration. In 2006, Democrats took over Congress during the Bush administration. And in 2010, there was that shellacking of Democrats in President Obama's first midterm.
But in 2018, in President Trump's first term, while Republicans lost the House, yes, in what's become known as a blue wave, the GOP actually expanded their power in the Senate. And because of redistricting, the congressional maps look very different this time around. So today, we're looking at how both parties are positioning themselves either to keep or to try to take control of Congress next year. I'll be talking to two people who are at the crux of those decisions. At the center of the Trump effect campaign is Republican operative James Blair. He was a key player in the 2024 presidential campaign, and now he's the man controlling the purse strings for MAGA Inc. That's the Trump super PAC. I want to find out exactly how he thinks a Trump-focused campaign can win without Donald Trump on the ballot.
Can Republicans overcome all the headwinds that the GOP is facing right now? Then there's Democrats. They have a very different challenge. They're trying to conduct a symphony, essentially, of very divergent voices all around the country. So they actually sound like they're singing from some version of the same song. Part of that will be a job for California Congressman Pete Aguilar. He's the chair of the House Democratic Caucus. He's the number three House Dem. And that means he's in charge of messaging. I want to find out if he thinks the 2018 playbook can work again in 2026 and how Democrats can try to drive the conversation in Donald Trump's Washington. So how are Republicans hoping to defy history?
And what plans do Democrats have to crack the president's MAGA movement's control of Washington? Stay with us.
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And we're back to Here's the Scoop Election Edition. I'm Garrett Haik. Now, you may not know James Blair by name or even recognize his face, but he was one of the key architects of President Trump's successful 2024 campaign. He was basically a behind-the-scenes guy. He helped use data to craft their messages, make presidential schedules, cut their ads, turning all of it into a winning campaign. Then Blair joined President Trump's team at the White House, where he served as a deputy chief of staff, reporting to Susie Wiles. He oversaw their external politics, working on special elections and internal efforts to pass legislation, things like the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What historical patterns shape expectations for the 2026 midterm elections?
0:01–7:22
2
How does James Blair plan to use MAGA Inc.’s $400 million war chest without Trump on the ballot?
7:22–11:55
3
What role does Pete Aguilar play in shaping the Democratic message for Congress?
11:55–24:02
4
Can Republicans overcome current headwinds and keep both chambers despite the ‘Trump effect’?
24:02–29:29
5
How are Democrats positioning their messaging to counter the Trump‑driven Republican strategy?
29:29–41:14
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Introducing: Here’s the Scoop Election Edition