Show notes
Everyone calls David Rosenberg a permabear but he says he’s fully invested, just in completely different places than the consensus.On this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, Rosenberg breaks down why he’s still in the market despite sounding the alarm on what he sees as extreme valuations, bubble-like behaviour, and a dangerous level of investor complacency. From a “teflon market” that shrugs off every shock, to an equity market where investors are effectively paying to take risk, he explains why this cycle feels eerily similar to the late-90s tech mania.He pushes back on the dominant narrative around AI and government spending, arguing the real economy is far weaker beneath the surface. Strip out AI, and growth looks sluggish. Strip out a handful of mega-cap names, and market returns look far less impressive. For Rosenberg, this is a sentiment-driven market—one where momentum is masking rising risks.At the same time, Rosenberg is leaning heavily into an area most investors have written off: government bonds. He’s bullish on short-term bonds in both Canada and the U.S., arguing markets are mispricing the path of interest rates. While investors brace for more inflation and potential hikes, he sees disinflation ahead—driven by weak wage growth and slowing demand—which could force central banks to cut. In his view, that disconnect creates a compelling opportunity in the front end of the bond market.In Pro Picks, he lays out exactly where he is putting money to work in addition to government bonds. He’s bullish on commodities across the board—gold, base metals, energy infrastructure, and agriculture—driven by long-term supply constraints and a shift toward resource security. He also highlights defense as a stealth tech play with strong earnings visibility, and sees clean energy as a geopolitical trade tied to energy independence. His message is clear: stay invested, but stay disciplined—because when the cycle turns, valuation will matter again.Timestamps00:00 Trailer02:10 Intro04:15 Is Rosie surprised at the teflon market?08:25 Echoes of 1999. Investors are paying to take on risk12:15 Government bonds have a unique safety characteristic14:25 We’ve reached the stage where people think the stock market is riskless16:05 Dave doesn’t follow the herd…ever18:55 Dave’s model portfolio23:10 Look at the economy ex AI 27:45 The midterms will end the gravy train31:15: These things go in cycles, Dave isn’t going to time it, and he’s going to invest very selectively 37:20 Hamilton ETFs: Mixed Asset Allocation ETF - MIX 39:30 Making a bet on the future of commodity inflation, Dave likes the hard asset theme42:45 Why Dave expects to see rate cuts not rate hikes48:30 Why Dave likes the Canadian banks53:10 Why Dave isn’t too worried about the USMCA55:50: David Rosenberg’s Pro Picks (commodities, defence, clean energy) SponsorsFor over 25 years, Raymond James has been helping Canadians achieve their financial goals. Visit https://raymondjames.ca today to discover how you can live a life well planned.Pro Picks is brought to you by ATB Financial. Visit https://ATB.com/inthemoney for more informationThe mailbag is sponsored by Hamilton ETFs. For more information on the Hamilton Enhanced Mixed Asset Allocation ETF visit: https://hamiltonetfs.com/etf/mix/ Linkshttps://inthemoneypod.com/ https://instagram.com/inthemoneypodhttps://facebook.com/profile.php?id=61569721774740 https://twitter.com/inthemoneypod https://tiktok.com/@[email protected] The content provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice.The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. 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