How Far Will Trump Go in Iran?
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Hi, I'm Solana Pine.
Is Iran biding its time until Trump leaves office?
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What are the three phases to regime change in Iran?
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How do Iran's military capabilities affect the Strait of Hormuz?
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How might the next American president treat Iran differently?
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What is the significance of the battle for the Strait of Hormuz?
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Is there a risk of Iran attacking its neighbors?
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Will Trump negotiate a deal with Iran?
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From New York Times Opinion, I'm Ross Douthat, and this is Interesting Times.
So, is the United States winning its war against Iran?
They have no navy and they have no air force and they have no nothing. And if this is what success looks like... The war in Iran has caused oil and gas prices to spike and it's not just affecting cars on the road. Economists say American consumers can't get a break. What would failure look like? If the Iranian regime stays in power, they win.
My guest this week is the CEO for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He's a longtime Iran hawk who argues that victory is within our reach and that regime change is still a possibility. Mark Dubowitz, welcome to Interesting Times.
Mark Dubowitz Ross, thanks for having me. Honored to be here.
So we're talking, I'd say, about 24 hours or a little more after President Trump postponed his professed plan to strike Iran's power plants if they did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. And we're also talking in the background of conflicting reports about possible talks between the United States and the Iranian government or elements of the Iranian government. All of that seems very vague and nebulous at the moment. But that's roughly where we are in the timeline right now. So given where we are, first question, very easy one, is the United States winning its war against the Islamic Republic of Iran?
Well, short answer is yes. Longer answer is, depends what you mean by winning. And if you mean based on what President Trump laid out as the objectives of the United States, then we are winning. And those objectives, he was very clear. It's essentially to destroy the war-making capabilities of the Islamic Republic. which includes its missile program, its Navy, and its nuclear capabilities. And I think with that in mind, it's only been three weeks in. I think the U.S. military, along with the Israelis, have done a pretty extraordinary job of severely degrading those capabilities across all lines of power projection. I mean, the missile program has been severely degraded. Ross, give you a sense. I mean, they had the largest missile inventory in the Middle East before the war started.
Their ballistic missile production rate is now zero. Their launchers have been reduced by two-thirds. The Iranian Navy has been decimated. The nuclear program, I think, is still to be determined. But between the 12-day war last year and Israeli strikes against the nuclear facilities during the past three weeks, the program has been set back even further. more severely. But there's still the Battle of Hormuz to be won or lost, and I think that's going to be a decisive battle that will determine whether President Trump can legitimately claim at the end of all of this a major military success.
Yeah, well, we'll talk about the Battle of Hormuz. Let's just stay with military degradation for a moment. In a scenario where this conflict ended soon... And those objectives were seen to have been met. There's no world where you're going to eliminate completely the Iranian regime's capacity to have a military unless you invade Iran and occupy it and so on. Does that mean that this military operation in its limited form is just about buying time so that we just don't have to attack Iran again for five years or something like that?
Yeah, I mean, I think what we're trying to do is severely degrade their war-making capability and also their repression apparatus. That's actually been the Israeli piece of the military operation.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–0:02
2
Is Iran biding its time until Trump leaves office?
0:02–0:05
3
What are the three phases to regime change in Iran?
0:05–0:14
4
How do Iran's military capabilities affect the Strait of Hormuz?
0:14–0:18
5
How might the next American president treat Iran differently?
0:18–0:22
6
What is the significance of the battle for the Strait of Hormuz?
0:22–0:24
7
Is there a risk of Iran attacking its neighbors?
0:24–0:26
8
Will Trump negotiate a deal with Iran?
0:26–52:33
Speakers
4 identifiedMore from Interesting Times
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